NCAAF
UTEP
1-9
Air Force
8-2
Win Probability
UTEP travels to face Air Force in a matchup that AccuScore's simulation decisively favors the home side. The Falcons' defense will be tested early, but the model projects Air Force to control the tempo throughout. On games shaped this strongly in the simulation's favor, the favored side has won 93 percent of the time historically. UTEP would need to generate explosive plays early and force Air Force into mistakes to stay close; anything less leaves the visitors chasing from behind.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
EV is the simulation's chance times the book's price, minus 1. It is what the simulation expects, not a guaranteed return; the props archive shows what value picks actually earned.
| Book | AFA | EV | UTEP | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi ↗ | -1087 | +0.9% | +756 | -20.9% |
| Polymarket ↗ | -1649 | -0.6% | +857 | -17.5% |
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AccuScore's simulation makes Air Force 93% to beat UTEP (7%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Air Force the more likely winner at 93%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Air Force a 93% chance of beating UTEP, against 7% for UTEP. Air Force are at home and favoured on these numbers.
UTEP (1-9 so far) project to finish 1.4–10.6 and make the College Football Playoff in 0% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Air Force (8-2 so far) project to finish 9.1–2.9 and make the College Football Playoff in 1% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAF team's projection →
How UTEP and Air Force come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
UTEP have won 0 of their last 5 (L-L-L-L-L, most recent first).
Air Force have won 4 of their last 5 (W-W-W-L-W, most recent first).
UTEP are 22-10 as favourite and 12-101 as underdog, and 13-72 on the road (15% of 85 games, 2011–2026).
Air Force are 59-30 as favourite and 19-42 as underdog, and 51-29 at home (64% of 80 games, 2011–2026).
| Record | UTEP | AFA |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 22-10 | 59-30 |
| As underdog | 12-101 | 19-42 |
| At home | 23-46 | 51-29 |
| On the road | 13-72 | 34-46 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the point spread. How the NCAAF odds have moved →