NCAAF
East Carolina
6-4
Army
5-4
Win Probability
Army hosts East Carolina in a matchup where the simulation clearly favors the home side. Emory Williams projects for 130 passing yards for the visiting Pirates, while Army's Cale Hellums sits just 10 yards behind at 120—a tight margin that reflects how evenly matched the passing games figure to be. The deciding factor lies in the ground game: East Carolina's Ashton Gray is projected for 45 rushing yards against Army's Godspower Nwawuihe at 35, giving the visitors a slight edge in run production that could prove critical in a tight contest. In games where the model has favored one side this strongly across 2,539 historical matchups, that side won 66% of the time. For East Carolina to pull off the upset, the Pirates would need to exploit their projected rushing advantage while forcing Army into an uncharacteristically inefficient passing game.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
EV is the simulation's chance times the book's price, minus 1. It is what the simulation expects, not a guaranteed return; the props archive shows what value picks actually earned.
| Book | Line | ARMY | EV | ECU | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -4.5 | -110 | +2.2% | -110 | -6.8% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -4.5 | -110 | +2.2% | -110 | -6.8% |
| Book | ARMY | EV | ECU | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -175 | +1.7% | +145 | -8.1% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -188 | +0.4% | +155 | -6.4% |
| Kalshi ↗ | -208 | -1.3% | +159 | -5.7% |
| Polymarket ↗ | -223 | -2.3% | +131 | -10.5% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 42.5 | -105 | +1.1% | -115 | -5.5% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 41.5 | -110 | +2.0% | -110 | -6.6% |
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AccuScore's simulation makes Army 66% to beat East Carolina (34%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Army the more likely winner at 66%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Army a 66% chance of beating East Carolina, against 34% for East Carolina. Army are at home and favoured on these numbers.
East Carolina (6-4 so far) project to finish 6.8–5.2 and make the College Football Playoff in <1% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Army (5-4 so far) project to finish 6.5–5.5 and make the College Football Playoff in <1% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Division title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| East Carolina | 6.8–5.2 | <1% | <1% |
| Army | 6.5–5.5 | 2% | <1% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAF team's projection →
How East Carolina and Army come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
East Carolina have won 3 of their last 5 (W-W-W-L-L, most recent first).
Army have won 3 of their last 5 (L-L-W-W-W, most recent first).
The teams have met 2 times since 2024: East Carolina 1, Army 1. The last meeting, on Sep 25, 2025, finished Army 6, East Carolina 28.
East Carolina are 50-18 as favourite and 20-67 as underdog, and 33-53 on the road (38% of 86 games, 2011–2026).
Army are 41-21 as favourite and 23-60 as underdog, and 41-30 at home (58% of 71 games, 2011–2026).
| Record | ECU | ARMY |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 50-18 | 41-21 |
| As underdog | 20-67 | 23-60 |
| At home | 43-34 | 41-30 |
| On the road | 33-53 | 30-54 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the point spread. How the NCAAF odds have moved →