NCAAF
Memphis
8-2
Navy
3-6
Win Probability
Memphis travels to Navy as a clear favourite in this matchup between the 8-2 Tigers and the 3-6 Midshipmen. The simulation leans emphatically toward the visitors, projecting Marcus Stokes to deliver 190 passing yards while Jaylin Carter adds 65 on the ground for Memphis. Navy's Jackson Gutierrez is expected to manage just 140 passing yards, a gap that shapes how each team can move the ball. On games where AccuScore has favoured one side this strongly, that side won 66% of the time across 2,539 graded contests. For Navy to pull the upset at home, Gutierrez would need to operate well beyond his projection and force Memphis into mistakes.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
EV is the simulation's chance times the book's price, minus 1. It is what the simulation expects, not a guaranteed return; the props archive shows what value picks actually earned.
| Book | Line | NAVY | EV | MEM | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | +3 | -105 | -5.3% | -115 | +0.9% |
| FanDuel ↗ | +3.5 | -105 | -3.3% | -115 | -1.2% |
| Book | NAVY | EV | MEM | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | +140 | -3.1% | -166 | -1.2% |
| FanDuel ↗ | +150 | -1.1% | -178 | -2.4% |
| Kalshi ↗ | +152 | -0.7% | -182 | -2.8% |
| Polymarket ↗ | +121 | -6.8% | -204 | -4.6% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 64.5 | -110 | -0.6% | -110 | -4.0% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 65.5 | +100 | -1.2% | -120 | -3.1% |
Get one of today's Gold picks delivered every morning — free.
No spam. Unsubscribe anytime.
AccuScore's simulation makes Memphis 61% to beat Navy (39%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Memphis the more likely winner at 61%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Navy a 39% chance of beating Memphis, against 61% for Memphis. Navy are at home but the underdog on these numbers.
Memphis (8-2 so far) project to finish 9.5–2.5 and make the College Football Playoff in 7% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Navy (3-6 so far) project to finish 4.8–7.2 and make the College Football Playoff in 0% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAF team's projection →
How Memphis and Navy come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Memphis have won 4 of their last 5 (W-W-W-L-W, most recent first).
Navy have won 2 of their last 5 (W-L-L-L-W, most recent first).
The teams have met 9 times since 2015: Memphis 4, Navy 5. The last meeting, on Nov 26, 2025, finished Navy 28, Memphis 17.
Memphis are 72-23 as favourite and 16-49 as underdog, and 38-48 on the road (44% of 86 games, 2011–2026).
Navy are 64-20 as favourite and 27-51 as underdog, and 55-31 at home (64% of 86 games, 2011–2026).
| Record | MEM | NAVY |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 72-23 | 64-20 |
| As underdog | 16-49 | 27-51 |
| At home | 58-25 | 55-31 |
| On the road | 38-48 | 41-43 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the point spread. How the NCAAF odds have moved →