Washington State
2-8
Texas State
6-4
Win Probability
Washington State travels to face Texas State in a matchup the simulation favors decisively for the home side. Brad Jackson's projected 190 passing yards anchors the Texas State offense, while Owen Eshelman needs to generate more with just 170 yards expected for Washington State. The game turns on whether Washington State can establish any ground game—Kirby Vorhees is projected for only 45 rushing yards—against a Texas State team that figures to control the tempo through Torrance Burgess Jr.'s 85 projected yards on the ground. In games shaped like this one, AccuScore's favored side has won 86% of the time across 1,786 graded contests. For Washington State to pull the upset, Branden Ganashamoorthy and the passing game would need to sustain drives that Texas State's projected output suggests they cannot match.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
EV is the simulation's chance times the book's price, minus 1. It is what the simulation expects, not a guaranteed return; the props archive shows what value picks actually earned.
| Book | TXST | EV | WSU | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi ↗ | -564 | -3.1% | +426 | +3.7% |
| Polymarket ↗ | -646 | -4.0% | +381 | -0.9% |
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NCAAF
AccuScore's simulation makes Texas State 80% to beat Washington State (20%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Texas State the more likely winner at 80%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Texas State a 80% chance of beating Washington State, against 20% for Washington State. Texas State are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Washington State (2-8 so far) project to finish 2.3–8.7 and make the College Football Playoff in 0% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Texas State (6-4 so far) project to finish 6.7–4.3 and make the College Football Playoff in <1% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Division title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Washington State | 2.3–8.7 | 0% | 0% |
| Texas State | 6.7–4.3 | 0% | <1% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAF team's projection →
How Washington State and Texas State come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Washington State have won 1 of their last 5 (W-L-L-L-L, most recent first).
Texas State have won 4 of their last 5 (W-W-L-W-W, most recent first).
Washington State are 45-18 as favourite and 25-63 as underdog, and 32-49 on the road (40% of 81 games, 2011–2026).
Texas State are 26-16 as favourite and 17-84 as underdog, and 30-42 at home (42% of 72 games, 2012–2026).
| Record | WSU | TXST |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 45-18 | 26-16 |
| As underdog | 25-63 | 17-84 |
| At home | 45-36 | 30-42 |
| On the road | 32-49 | 18-61 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the point spread. How the NCAAF odds have moved →