#25SMU
7-2
#3Notre Dame
8-1
Win Probability
Notre Dame hosts SMU in a matchup where the simulation decisively favours the Irish. CJ Carr projects for 220 passing yards for Notre Dame, while SMU's Kevin Jennings is expected to manage just 180, a gap that reflects how thoroughly the Irish are favoured to control the game. The contest turns on whether SMU can establish any offensive rhythm: Kendrick Raphael's projected 60 rushing yards and the combined 100 yards expected from receivers Yannick Smith and Yamir Knight will need to exceed those marks significantly for the Irish to be threatened. AccuScore's model favoured one side this decisively in 1,780 graded games and won 86 percent of them. For SMU to pull the upset, it would need to generate explosive plays well above these projections while forcing Notre Dame into uncharacteristic mistakes.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
EV is the simulation's chance times the book's price, minus 1. It is what the simulation expects, not a guaranteed return; the props archive shows what value picks actually earned.
| Book | Line | ND | EV | SMU | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Novig ↗ | -16.5 | -150 | -2.7% | -150 | -14.0% |
| ProphetX ↗ | -17.5 | -153 | -4.9% | -109 | -6.4% |
| Book | ND | EV | SMU | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi ↗ | -967 | -0.5% | +756 | -6.3% |
| Polymarket ↗ | -1064 | -0.9% | +637 | -12.4% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Novig ↗ | 58.5 | -150 | -6.9% | -150 | -9.8% |
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NCAAF
AccuScore's simulation makes Notre Dame 90% to beat SMU (10%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Notre Dame the more likely winner at 90%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Notre Dame a 90% chance of beating SMU, against 10% for SMU. Notre Dame are at home and favoured on these numbers.
SMU (7-2 so far) project to finish 8.3–3.7 and make the College Football Playoff in 7% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Notre Dame (8-1 so far) project to finish 10.8–1.2 and make the College Football Playoff in 98% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Division title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| SMU | 8.3–3.7 | <1% | 7% |
| Notre Dame | 10.8–1.2 | 0% | 98% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAF team's projection →
How SMU and Notre Dame come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
SMU have won 3 of their last 5 (L-W-L-W-W, most recent first).
Notre Dame have won 4 of their last 5 (W-W-W-L-W, most recent first).
SMU are 58-14 as favourite and 21-66 as underdog, and 36-49 on the road (42% of 85 games, 2011–2026).
Notre Dame are 116-22 as favourite and 16-22 as underdog, and 89-19 at home (82% of 108 games, 2011–2026).
| Record | SMU | ND |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 58-14 | 116-22 |
| As underdog | 21-66 | 16-22 |
| At home | 50-33 | 89-19 |
| On the road | 36-49 | 54-25 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the point spread. How the NCAAF odds have moved →