Colorado State
3-7
Fresno State
5-5
Win Probability
Colorado State travels to face Fresno State in a matchup the simulation strongly favors the home side. Jayden Mandal's projected 230 passing yards anchor Fresno State's attack, while Colorado State's Hauss Hejny is expected to manage just 160 through the air—a 70-yard gap that reflects the gap in execution the model expects. Fresno State's rushing attack, led by Bryson Donelson's projected 65 yards, should create enough balance to control pace and field position. On games shaped like this one historically, the favored side won 93 of 100 times. Colorado State would need to generate explosive plays on limited possessions and force Fresno State into mistakes to overcome that structural disadvantage.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
EV is the simulation's chance times the book's price, minus 1. It is what the simulation expects, not a guaranteed return; the props archive shows what value picks actually earned.
| Book | FRES | EV | CSU | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi ↗ | -1236 | -0.5% | +841 | -10.0% |
| Polymarket ↗ | -1649 | -1.5% | +286 | -33.6% |
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NCAAF
AccuScore's simulation makes Fresno State 92% to beat Colorado State (9%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Fresno State the more likely winner at 92%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Fresno State a 92% chance of beating Colorado State, against 9% for Colorado State. Fresno State are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Colorado State (3-7 so far) project to finish 3.1–7.9 and make the College Football Playoff in 0% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Fresno State (5-5 so far) project to finish 5.9–5.1 and make the College Football Playoff in 0% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Division title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Colorado State | 3.1–7.9 | 0% | 0% |
| Fresno State | 5.9–5.1 | 0% | 0% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAF team's projection →
How Colorado State and Fresno State come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Colorado State have won 1 of their last 5 (L-L-L-W-L, most recent first).
Fresno State have won 1 of their last 5 (L-L-W-L-L, most recent first).
The teams have met 7 times since 2012: Colorado State 4, Fresno State 3. The last meeting, on Oct 9, 2025, finished Fresno State 21, Colorado State 49.
Colorado State are 36-22 as favourite and 21-73 as underdog, and 27-52 on the road (34% of 79 games, 2011–2026).
Fresno State are 64-23 as favourite and 22-50 as underdog, and 46-29 at home (61% of 75 games, 2011–2026).
| Record | CSU | FRES |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 36-22 | 64-23 |
| As underdog | 21-73 | 22-50 |
| At home | 36-46 | 46-29 |
| On the road | 27-52 | 43-50 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the point spread. How the NCAAF odds have moved →