UNLV
6-4
San José State
5-6
Win Probability
San José State hosts UNLV in a matchup where the simulation clearly favours the visiting Rebels. Jackson Arnold's projected 180 passing yards will need to sustain UNLV's offence, while Jai'Den Thomas carries the ground game with 65 rushing yards in the model's view. The game turns on San José State's passing attack: Luke Weaver is projected for just 130 yards, a 50-yard gap that reflects the disparity in offensive firepower. On games shaped like this one, AccuScore's favoured side won 66 percent of 2,539 graded matchups. For the Spartans to pull the upset, they would need Weaver to exceed that projection significantly while keeping the visitors off the board early.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
EV is the simulation's chance times the book's price, minus 1. It is what the simulation expects, not a guaranteed return; the props archive shows what value picks actually earned.
| Book | SJSU | EV | UNLV | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi ↗ | +140 | -4.3% | -191 | -2.8% |
| Polymarket ↗ | +127 | -6.8% | -214 | -4.6% |
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NCAAF
AccuScore's simulation makes UNLV 62% to beat San José State (38%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes UNLV the more likely winner at 62%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives San José State a 38% chance of beating UNLV, against 62% for UNLV. San José State are at home but the underdog on these numbers.
UNLV (6-4 so far) project to finish 7.5–4.5 and make the College Football Playoff in <1% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
San José State (5-6 so far) project to finish 5.6–7.4 and make the College Football Playoff in 0% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Division title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| UNLV | 7.5–4.5 | 0% | <1% |
| San José State | 5.6–7.4 | 0% | 0% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAF team's projection →
How UNLV and San José State come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
UNLV have won 3 of their last 5 (W-L-W-L-W, most recent first).
San José State have won 2 of their last 5 (L-W-L-L-W, most recent first).
The teams have met 10 times since 2013: UNLV 3, San José State 7. The last meeting, on Nov 21, 2024, finished UNLV 27, San José State 16.
UNLV are 24-22 as favourite and 25-79 as underdog, and 26-61 on the road (30% of 87 games, 2011–2026).
San José State are 33-17 as favourite and 18-72 as underdog, and 31-36 at home (46% of 67 games, 2011–2026).
| Record | UNLV | SJSU |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 24-22 | 33-17 |
| As underdog | 25-79 | 18-72 |
| At home | 31-42 | 31-36 |
| On the road | 26-61 | 24-58 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the point spread. How the NCAAF odds have moved →