#23New Mexico
8-2
Wyoming
7-3
Win Probability
New Mexico travels to Wyoming as a clear favourite in this matchup. The simulation leans decisively toward the Lobos, who project to lean heavily on their passing game through Toa Fa'avae's 130 yards while Scottre Humphrey shoulders 65 rushing yards. Wyoming's offence will struggle to keep pace, with Landon Sims projected for just 80 passing yards and Markell Holman managing 45 on the ground. When AccuScore has favoured a side this strongly across similar games, that side won 76% of the time historically. For the Cowboys to pull the upset at home, their defence would need to force New Mexico into uncharacteristic mistakes and sustain longer drives than the projections suggest.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
EV is the simulation's chance times the book's price, minus 1. It is what the simulation expects, not a guaranteed return; the props archive shows what value picks actually earned.
| Book | Line | WYO | EV | UNM | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Novig ↗ | +10.5 | -127 | -7.4% | -115 | -1.1% |
| Book | WYO | EV | UNM | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi ↗ | +331 | -1.5% | -458 | -2.8% |
| Polymarket ↗ | +302 | -4.8% | -480 | -3.2% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Novig ↗ | 36.5 | -133 | +0.2% | -120 | -10.9% |
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NCAAF
AccuScore's simulation makes New Mexico 78% to beat Wyoming (23%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes New Mexico the more likely winner at 78%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Wyoming a 23% chance of beating New Mexico, against 78% for New Mexico. Wyoming are at home but the underdog on these numbers.
New Mexico (8-2 so far) project to finish 9.6–2.4 and make the College Football Playoff in 11% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Wyoming (7-3 so far) project to finish 7.6–4.4 and make the College Football Playoff in <1% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Division title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| New Mexico | 9.6–2.4 | 64% | 11% |
| Wyoming | 7.6–4.4 | 23% | <1% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAF team's projection →
How New Mexico and Wyoming come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
New Mexico have won 4 of their last 5 (L-W-W-W-W, most recent first).
Wyoming have won 5 of their last 5 (W-W-W-W-W, most recent first).
The teams have met 12 times since 2011: New Mexico 4, Wyoming 8. The last meeting, on Nov 2, 2024, finished Wyoming 49, New Mexico 45.
New Mexico are 28-14 as favourite and 18-90 as underdog, and 25-63 on the road (28% of 88 games, 2011–2026).
Wyoming are 38-16 as favourite and 28-67 as underdog, and 38-35 at home (52% of 73 games, 2011–2026).
| Record | UNM | WYO |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 28-14 | 38-16 |
| As underdog | 18-90 | 28-67 |
| At home | 26-45 | 38-35 |
| On the road | 25-63 | 31-54 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the point spread. How the NCAAF odds have moved →