San Diego State
5-5
#17Boise State
9-1
Win Probability
Boise State hosts San Diego State in a matchup where the simulation decisively favours the home side. Stone Saunders projects for 160 passing yards for the Aztecs, while Dylan Riley is expected to rush for 95 yards for the Broncos—a gap that reflects where this game turns, on ground game dominance. The model has won 86% of 1,786 games shaped this way, a decisive lean backed by historical record. For San Diego State to pull off the upset, Jaylon Hawkins would need to significantly exceed his projected 50 receiving yards and the Aztecs' depleted attack would have to overcome a decided disadvantage in ball control.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
EV is the simulation's chance times the book's price, minus 1. It is what the simulation expects, not a guaranteed return; the props archive shows what value picks actually earned.
| Book | BOIS | EV | SDSU | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi ↗ | -967 | -1.2% | +756 | -0.8% |
| Polymarket ↗ | -1064 | -1.6% | +540 | -13.2% |
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NCAAF
AccuScore's simulation makes Boise State 89% to beat San Diego State (12%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Boise State the more likely winner at 89%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Boise State a 89% chance of beating San Diego State, against 12% for San Diego State. Boise State are at home and favoured on these numbers.
San Diego State (5-5 so far) project to finish 5.1–5.9 and make the College Football Playoff in 0% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Boise State (9-1 so far) project to finish 9.9–1.1 and make the College Football Playoff in 66% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Division title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| San Diego State | 5.1–5.9 | 0% | 0% |
| Boise State | 9.9–1.1 | >99% | 66% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAF team's projection →
How San Diego State and Boise State come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
San Diego State have won 3 of their last 5 (W-W-L-W-L, most recent first).
Boise State have won 5 of their last 5 (W-W-W-W-W, most recent first).
The teams have met 10 times since 2011: San Diego State 5, Boise State 5. The last meeting, on Nov 14, 2025, finished Boise State 7, San Diego State 17.
San Diego State are 79-27 as favourite and 24-31 as underdog, and 43-36 on the road (54% of 79 games, 2011–2026).
Boise State are 121-26 as favourite and 8-18 as underdog, and 74-18 at home (80% of 92 games, 2011–2026).
| Record | SDSU | BOIS |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 79-27 | 121-26 |
| As underdog | 24-31 | 8-18 |
| At home | 61-29 | 74-18 |
| On the road | 43-36 | 63-27 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the point spread. How the NCAAF odds have moved →