Utah State
4-6
Oregon State
5-5
Win Probability
Utah State travels to face Oregon State in a matchup where the simulation decisively favors the home side. McCae Hillstead's projected 120 passing yards lead the Aggies' offensive workload, while Oregon State's Jesse Legree is expected to gain 65 receiving yards in what shapes as a pass-heavy evening for the Beavers. The game turns on Utah State's ability to generate rushing production; the model projects just 75 combined yards on the ground for the visitors, a constraint that will make sustaining drives difficult. AccuScore's simulations favored sides this strongly in 2,225 graded games and won 76 percent of them. For Utah State to pull off an upset, Javen Jacobs and the ground game would need to outperform their projections significantly while Oregon State's passing attack misfires.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
EV is the simulation's chance times the book's price, minus 1. It is what the simulation expects, not a guaranteed return; the props archive shows what value picks actually earned.
| Book | ORST | EV | USU | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi ↗ | -340 | -1.6% | +266 | -3.9% |
| Polymarket ↗ | -448 | -4.3% | +222 | -9.4% |
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Utah State (4-6 so far) project to finish 4.2–6.8 and make the College Football Playoff in 0% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Oregon State (5-5 so far) project to finish 5.8–5.2 and make the College Football Playoff in <1% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Division title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Utah State | 4.2–6.8 | 0% | 0% |
| Oregon State | 5.8–5.2 | 0% | <1% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAF team's projection →
NCAAF
AccuScore's simulation makes Oregon State 75% to beat Utah State (25%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Oregon State the more likely winner at 75%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Oregon State a 75% chance of beating Utah State, against 25% for Utah State. Oregon State are at home and favoured on these numbers.
How Utah State and Oregon State come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Utah State have won 3 of their last 5 (L-W-W-L-W, most recent first).
Oregon State have won 2 of their last 5 (L-L-L-W-W, most recent first).
The teams have met once since 2021: Utah State 1, Oregon State 0. The last meeting, on Dec 18, 2021, finished Utah State 24, Oregon State 13.
Utah State are 63-22 as favourite and 22-54 as underdog, and 37-53 on the road (41% of 90 games, 2011–2026).
Oregon State are 28-20 as favourite and 24-76 as underdog, and 32-44 at home (42% of 76 games, 2011–2026).
| Record | USU | ORST |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 63-22 | 28-20 |
| As underdog | 22-54 | 24-76 |
| At home | 51-28 | 32-44 |
| On the road | 37-53 | 21-59 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the point spread. How the NCAAF odds have moved →