Liverpool
LASK
Win Probability
Liverpool travels to LASK in the Champions League with the simulation decisively favoring the visitors. On 10,000 runs, the model projects a comfortable away win, with the game turning on whether LASK can generate enough attacking threat to keep the scoreline respectable—the simulation puts just 0.8 goals in their column. AccuScore's record on away-favored matchups of this probability shape stands at 74% over 276 games. For LASK to upset that lean, they would need to convert chances at a rate well above what the model expects and tighten their defense enough to prevent Liverpool from reaching the 2-goal range where these simulations cluster most frequently.
| Book | Line | LAS | EV | LIV | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| bet365 ↗ | — | — | — | — | — |
| Book | LAS | EV | LIV | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle ↗ | +969 | +8.8% | -476 | -8.4% |
| Betfair ↗ | +1000 | +10.5% | -500 | -8.7% |
| bet365 ↗ | +1100 | +16.0% | -400 | -7.0% |
| William Hill ↗ | +850 | +2.2% | -400 | -7.0% |
| BetVictor ↗ | +950 | +7.8% | -455 | -8.0% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle ↗ | 3.5 | -109 | -16.2% | -111 | +11.5% |
| Betfair ↗ | 2.5 | -333 | -12.5% | +220 | +17.7% |
| bet365 ↗ | 3.5 | -110 | -16.3% | -110 | +11.8% |
| BetVictor ↗ | 3.5 | -116 | -17.2% | -123 | +8.7% |
| Marathon ↗ | 3.5 | -106 | -15.7% | -114 | +10.8% |
Where to Bet
silverWin probability: 11.0%
Champions League
AccuScore's simulation makes Liverpool 69% to win, LASK 11%, with a 20% chance of a draw.
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Liverpool the more likely winner at 69%, with a 20% chance of a draw. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives LASK a 11% chance of beating Liverpool, with 69% for Liverpool and 20% for a draw. LASK are at home but the underdog on these numbers.