Champions League predictions and probabilities

Champions League nights are simulated the same way as a league fixture: 10,000 runs per match for a home, draw and away probability, a projected scoreline, the chance of the match clearing each goals line and the chance each player scores.

Those numbers are priced against the live bookmaker odds, and a match reaches the board when the price is worse than our number says it should be. The competition throws together sides that rarely meet, which is where a simulation earns its keep and where a season-long average says least. Published picks are graded at their published price, as in every other competition.

Champions League predictions: common questions

Which Champions League matches are covered?

Every match in the competition, from the league phase onwards, as soon as the bookmakers price it.

Do you simulate the tie or the match?

The match. Each fixture is simulated on its own 90 minutes, which is what the markets on the card are settled on.

Do you predict who wins the tournament?

Season-long simulations are published on the forecasts page for the competitions we cover.

Probabilities and projections come from AccuScore simulations; prices come from the bookmakers named beside them and move. Nothing here is betting advice. See the graded record.