Malaga
Deportivo Alavés
Win Probability
Moneyline
MLG
+357
8.8% win prob
EV -29.9%
1xBet
Draw
Draw
+274
20% prob
EV -13.2%
1xBet
Moneyline
ALA
-112
71.5% win prob
EV +17.7%
1xBet
Deportivo Alavés hosts Malaga in a fixture where the simulation decisively favors the home side. AccuScore projects a comfortable victory for Alavés, with the attacking threat concentrated heavily in their favor. On games shaped this way—a strong lean toward the home team—the model's picks have won 63% of the time across 2027 prior matchups. For Malaga to upset the projection and emerge with a result, they would need to contain Alavés's offensive threat and convert their limited chances into goals on a ground where they rarely dominate possession.
| Book | MLG | EV | Draw | EV | ALA | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle ↗ | +339 | -30.7% | +250 | -15.5% | -118 | +16.0% |
| Betfair ↗ | +333 | -30.9% | +250 | -15.5% | -125 | +14.3% |
| bet365 ↗ | +333 | -30.9% | +240 | -16.5% | -120 | +15.5% |
| William Hill ↗ | +320 | -31.5% | +240 | -16.5% | -120 | +15.5% |
| Marathon ↗ | +345 | -30.4% | +264 | -14.1% | -119 | +15.8% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle ↗ | 2.5 | +113 | +4.7% | -137 | -7.9% |
| Betfair ↗ | 2.5 | -105 | +0.1% | -133 | -7.4% |
| bet365 ↗ | 2.5 | +110 | +3.9% | -137 | -7.9% |
| Marathon ↗ | 2.5 | +101 | +1.6% | -122 | -5.8% |
| 1xBet ↗ | 2.5 | +107 | +3.2% | -114 | -4.4% |
Where to Bet
silverWin probability: 51.4%
La Liga
AccuScore's simulation makes Deportivo Alavés 72% to win, Malaga 9%, with a 20% chance of a draw.
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Deportivo Alavés the more likely winner at 72%, with a 20% chance of a draw. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Deportivo Alavés a 72% chance of beating Malaga, with 9% for Malaga and 20% for a draw. Deportivo Alavés are at home and favoured on these numbers.
How Malaga and Deportivo Alavés come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Malaga have won 1 of their last 5, drawing 3 (D-L-W-D-D, most recent first).
Deportivo Alavés have won 2 of their last 5, drawing 1 (L-D-W-L-W, most recent first).
The teams have met 2 times since 2017: Malaga 0, Deportivo Alavés 2. The last meeting, on May 6, 2018, finished Deportivo Alavés 3, Malaga 0.