MLB
Texas Rangers
80-81
Minnesota Twins
76-85
Win Probability
Projected score
4.2 – 3.7
This matchup between the Texas Rangers and Minnesota Twins at Target Field shapes up as a coin-flip, with the simulation barely favoring the visiting Rangers. MacKenzie Gore projects for 9.0 strikeouts, and whether the Rangers can generate offense against him will matter; Evan Carter has a 47% chance of recording a hit. The game turns on run prevention—AccuScore's 10,000 simulations show a balanced offensive environment, with scoring probability right at the tipping point. Over similar games in the past, the model has won just twice in eight comparable matchups. The Twins would need to lean on Joc Pederson, who carries a 19% home run probability, to push across enough runs to come away with the win.
1st 5 Innings — AccuScore Projection
F5 TEX
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F5 Total
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F5 MIN
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| Book | Line | MIN | EV | TEX | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | +1.5 | -157 | -22.3% | +129 | +25.8% |
| FanDuel ↗ | +1.5 | -160 | -22.5% | +132 | +26.8% |
| BetMGM ↗ | +1.5 | -165 | -22.9% | +135 | +27.8% |
| Book | MIN | EV | TEX | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | +105 | -0.7% | -126 | -3.5% |
| FanDuel ↗ | +106 | -0.5% | -124 | -3.1% |
| BetMGM ↗ | +105 | -0.7% | -130 | -4.1% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 8 | -117 | -7.1% | -103 | +3.4% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 8.5 | -104 | -9.4% | -118 | +4.2% |
| BetMGM ↗ | 8.5 | +100 | -8.7% | -120 | +3.8% |
Where to Bet
silverWin probability: 58.7%
AccuScore's simulation makes Texas Rangers 52% to beat Minnesota Twins (48%). Projected score: Texas Rangers 4.2, Minnesota Twins 3.7.
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Texas Rangers the more likely winner at 52%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Minnesota Twins a 48% chance of beating Texas Rangers, against 52% for Texas Rangers. Minnesota Twins are at home but the underdog on these numbers.
AccuScore projects Texas Rangers 4.2, Minnesota Twins 3.7.