Philadelphia Union
Nashville SC
Win Probability
Moneyline
PHI
+271
6.7% win prob
EV -37.6%
Polymarket
Draw
Draw
+304
21% prob
EV -7.4%
Kalshi
Moneyline
NSH
-112
72.2% win prob
EV +18.3%
Kalshi
Nashville SC hosts Philadelphia Union in a matchup the simulation favors decisively for the home side. The projection points to a low-scoring affair, with Nashville's defense the likely deciding factor; Philadelphia will need to break through and create chances Philadelphia Union has struggled to generate in this formation. AccuScore's model has returned 63% on games shaped this way—a slight lean without the certainty bigger favorites often show. For Philadelphia to escape with a result, their attacking players would need to convert at rates well above what the 50,000 simulations suggest is probable.
| Book | PHI | EV | Draw | EV | NSH | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi ↗ | +266 | -37.7% | +304 | -7.4% | -112 | +18.3% |
| Polymarket ↗ | +271 | -37.6% | +302 | -7.6% | -114 | +17.8% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle ↗ | 3 | -116 | -22.7% | -103 | +20.5% |
| Betfair ↗ | 2.5 | -222 | -22.1% | +155 | +28.4% |
| Betano ↗ | 3 | -120 | -23.0% | +102 | +22.0% |
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MLS
AccuScore's simulation makes Nashville SC 72% to win, Philadelphia Union 7%, with a 21% chance of a draw.
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Nashville SC the more likely winner at 72%, with a 21% chance of a draw. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Nashville SC a 72% chance of beating Philadelphia Union, with 7% for Philadelphia Union and 21% for a draw. Nashville SC are at home and favoured on these numbers.
How Philadelphia Union and Nashville SC come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Philadelphia Union have won 3 of their last 5, drawing 1 (L-D-W-W-W, most recent first).
Nashville SC have won 4 of their last 5, drawing 1 (W-D-W-W-W, most recent first).
The teams have met 11 times since 2021: Philadelphia Union 4, Nashville SC 3, 4 drawn. The last meeting, on May 2, 2026, finished Nashville SC 0, Philadelphia Union 0.