AS Roma
Manchester United
Win Probability
Manchester United hosts Roma in a Champions League fixture where the model favors the home side clearly. AccuScore's simulations project a narrow Manchester United victory, with the most likely outcome a 2–1 result. On games shaped like this one—home sides favored in the 50–60% range—the model has won 4 of 8 comparable matchups. The contest hinges on whether Roma can convert chances into goals; the simulation expects just 1.5 from the visitors while projecting 2.3 for Manchester United. For Roma to pull off an upset on the road, they would need to outshoot their projection significantly and limit Manchester United's efficiency in front of goal.
| Book | MUN | EV | ROM | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle ↗ | +110 | +7.3% | +213 | -13.4% |
| Betfair ↗ | +100 | +4.6% | +230 | -11.4% |
| Betano ↗ | +107 | +6.5% | +240 | -10.2% |
| bet365 ↗ | -110 | +2.1% | +260 | -7.9% |
| William Hill ↗ | +105 | +6.0% | +220 | -12.6% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle ↗ | 3.5 | +134 | +12.1% | -167 | -12.5% |
| Betfair ↗ | 2.5 | -200 | +5.1% | +140 | -18.1% |
| Betano ↗ | 3.5 | +137 | +12.9% | -161 | -11.9% |
| bet365 ↗ | 3.5 | +130 | +11.0% | -161 | -11.9% |
Where to Bet
silverWin probability: 54.6%
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Champions League
AccuScore's simulation makes Manchester United 55% to win, AS Roma 23%, with a 22% chance of a draw.
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Manchester United the more likely winner at 55%, with a 22% chance of a draw. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Manchester United a 55% chance of beating AS Roma, with 23% for AS Roma and 22% for a draw. Manchester United are at home and favoured on these numbers.
How AS Roma and Manchester United come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
AS Roma have won 1 of their last 2 (W-L, most recent first).
Manchester United have won 0 of their last 2 (L-L, most recent first).