PSG
Villarreal
Win Probability
When PSG travels to Villarreal in this Champions League fixture, the simulation leans clearly toward the visitors. Over 50,000 simulations, the model projects PSG will score 2.3 goals to Villarreal's 1.9, with the most likely outcome a 2–1 PSG win. The game hinges on whether combined scoring clears the total, and history offers a cautionary note: on similar games where AccuScore has favored the away side, the record stands at 61% over 432 matchups. For Villarreal to upset the projection, they would need to tighten their defense enough to keep PSG's attack from reaching that 2.3-goal expectation while generating more chances than the model accounts for.
| Book | VIL | EV | PSG | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle ↗ | +401 | +24.9% | -179 | -13.1% |
| Betfair ↗ | +375 | +21.0% | -175 | -12.8% |
| Betano ↗ | +370 | +20.3% | -161 | -11.6% |
| bet365 ↗ | +320 | +12.8% | -161 | -11.6% |
| William Hill ↗ | +360 | +18.8% | -161 | -11.6% |
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Champions League
AccuScore's simulation makes PSG 47% to win, Villarreal 30%, with a 23% chance of a draw.
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes PSG the more likely winner at 47%, with a 23% chance of a draw. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Villarreal a 30% chance of beating PSG, with 47% for PSG and 23% for a draw. Villarreal are at home but the underdog on these numbers.
How PSG and Villarreal come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
PSG have won 2 of their last 2 (W-W, most recent first).
Villarreal have won 1 of their last 2 (L-W, most recent first).