Real Madrid
AEK Athens
Win Probability
Real Madrid travel to face AEK Athens in a Champions League fixture where the simulation decisively favours the visitors. The model projects a comfortable margin, with Real Madrid winning in nearly two of every three outcomes. Whether AEK Athens can slow the pace will likely determine the result—the simulation suggests the combined score has a 64% chance to exceed the market total, indicating that an open game benefits the away side's superior talent. Across eight statistically similar matchups, the favoured side won seven times. For AEK Athens to pull off an upset, they would need to suffocate the game's tempo and force Real Madrid into a rare inefficient performance.
| Book | AEK | EV | RMA | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle ↗ | +679 | +11.9% | -323 | -6.7% |
| Betfair ↗ | +750 | +17.6% | -400 | -8.6% |
| Betano ↗ | +620 | +7.2% | -270 | -4.6% |
| bet365 ↗ | +550 | +1.7% | -303 | -6.0% |
| William Hill ↗ | +650 | +9.6% | -303 | -6.0% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle ↗ | 3.5 | -123 | +8.2% | +104 | -13.5% |
| Betfair ↗ | 2.5 | -345 | +2.6% | +230 | -19.6% |
| Betano ↗ | 3.5 | -114 | +10.3% | -105 | -15.1% |
| bet365 ↗ | 3.5 | -110 | +11.3% | -110 | -15.8% |
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Champions League
AccuScore's simulation makes Real Madrid 66% to win, AEK Athens 16%, with a 18% chance of a draw.
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Real Madrid the more likely winner at 66%, with a 18% chance of a draw. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives AEK Athens a 16% chance of beating Real Madrid, with 66% for Real Madrid and 18% for a draw. AEK Athens are at home but the underdog on these numbers.
How Real Madrid and AEK Athens come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Real Madrid have won 2 of their last 2 (W-W, most recent first).
AEK Athens have won 0 of their last 2 (L-L, most recent first).