Serie A • Sat, Nov 7, 14:00
Cagliari hosts Frosinone in a Serie A fixture where the simulation clearly favours the home side. The model projects a low-scoring affair centred on whether either team can find the net consistently; across 50,000 simulations, a 1–1 draw proved most likely at 12% of outcomes. For Frosinone to upset that lean, the visitors would need to convert their chances at a rate the projection does not expect, turning a projected 1.1 goals into something substantially higher.
See the model's win probabilities, projected and most-likely score, the positive-EV edge with its price, the record behind it, and the full write-up — for this game and every game.
Free members get the daily Gold Pick delivered by email.
Get one of today's Gold picks delivered every morning — free.
No spam. Unsubscribe anytime.
Serie A
AccuScore's simulation makes Cagliari 44% to win, Frosinone 27%, with a 29% chance of a draw.
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Cagliari the more likely winner at 44%, with a 29% chance of a draw. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Cagliari a 44% chance of beating Frosinone, with 27% for Frosinone and 29% for a draw. Cagliari are at home and favoured on these numbers.
How Frosinone and Cagliari come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Frosinone have won 3 of their last 5, drawing 1 (W-W-D-W-L, most recent first).
Cagliari have won 0 of their last 5, drawing 1 (L-L-L-L-D, most recent first).
The teams have met 4 times since 2018: Frosinone 1, Cagliari 2, 1 drawn. The last meeting, on Jan 21, 2024, finished Cagliari 1, Frosinone 3.