Bayer Leverkusen
Koln
Win Probability
Moneyline
B04
-149
31.7% win prob
EV -23.5%
Betano
Draw
Draw
+339
23% prob
EV +0.3%
Pinnacle
Moneyline
KOL
+351
45.4% win prob
EV +52.4%
Pinnacle
Bayer Leverkusen travel to face Koln in a fixture where the simulation leans slightly toward the hosts. The model projects a low-scoring affair centred on Koln's attacking threat, with both teams expected to find the net roughly twice. Over similar win-probability shapes across eight other matchups, the favoured side won just 3 of 8, a cautionary note for backing home strength. For Bayer Leverkusen to pull off the upset, their visiting side would need to tighten what the model sees as a vulnerable defensive picture and convert chances ruthlessly. The one thing that tilts the game toward Koln is volume: the simulation expects more combined goals than the market's total line suggests, with a 60% chance of the over hitting.
| Book | B04 | EV | Draw | EV | KOL | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle ↗ | -154 | -23.9% | +339 | +0.3% | +351 | +52.4% |
| Betano ↗ | -149 | -23.5% | +335 | -0.2% | +350 | +52.2% |
| bet365 ↗ | -154 | -23.9% | +320 | -1.9% | +333 | +48.3% |
| William Hill ↗ | -161 | -24.3% | +320 | -1.9% | +340 | +49.9% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle ↗ | 3.5 | -101 | +9.2% | -120 | -12.9% |
| Betano ↗ | 3.5 | +102 | +10.1% | -120 | -12.9% |
| bet365 ↗ | 3.5 | +100 | +9.5% | -125 | -13.6% |
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Bundesliga
AccuScore's simulation makes Koln 45% to win, Bayer Leverkusen 32%, with a 23% chance of a draw.
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Koln the more likely winner at 45%, with a 23% chance of a draw. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Koln a 45% chance of beating Bayer Leverkusen, with 32% for Bayer Leverkusen and 23% for a draw. Koln are at home and favoured on these numbers.
How Bayer Leverkusen and Koln come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Bayer Leverkusen have won 3 of their last 5, drawing 1 (L-W-W-W-D, most recent first).
Koln have won 2 of their last 5, drawing 2 (D-L-W-W-D, most recent first).
The teams have met 14 times since 2017: Bayer Leverkusen 9, Koln 4, 1 drawn. The last meeting, on Apr 25, 2026, finished Bayer Leverkusen 2, Koln 1.