Union Berlin
Freiburg
Win Probability
Moneyline
FCU
+483
13.0% win prob
EV -12.1%
Pinnacle
Draw
Draw
+361
23% prob
EV +2.6%
Pinnacle
Moneyline
SCF
-189
64.2% win prob
EV -0.9%
Betano
Freiburg hosts Union Berlin in a Bundesliga fixture where the simulation decisively favors the home side. Across 50,000 simulations, the model projects a low-scoring affair tilted sharply toward Freiburg's advantage. On games shaped like this one—where the home team draws a decisive lean—AccuScore's historical record stands at 53% over 3,147 graded matchups. Union Berlin's path to an upset runs through suppressing Freiburg's attack and capitalizing on limited chances; the combined goal expectation sits well below what most books are offering, suggesting the game's outcome hinges on defensive execution rather than offensive fireworks.
| Book | FCU | EV | Draw | EV | SCF | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle ↗ | +483 | -12.1% | +361 | +2.6% | -200 | -1.8% |
| Betano ↗ | +470 | -12.9% | +350 | +1.3% | -189 | -0.9% |
| bet365 ↗ | +475 | -12.6% | +350 | +1.3% | -208 | -2.5% |
| William Hill ↗ | +400 | -17.5% | +320 | -2.1% | -189 | -0.9% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle ↗ | 3 | -114 | -10.8% | -104 | +8.1% |
| Betano ↗ | 3 | -125 | -12.0% | +105 | +10.2% |
| bet365 ↗ | 2.5 | -200 | -10.9% | +162 | +12.8% |
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Bundesliga
AccuScore's simulation makes Freiburg 64% to win, Union Berlin 13%, with a 23% chance of a draw.
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Freiburg the more likely winner at 64%, with a 23% chance of a draw. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Freiburg a 64% chance of beating Union Berlin, with 13% for Union Berlin and 23% for a draw. Freiburg are at home and favoured on these numbers.
How Union Berlin and Freiburg come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Union Berlin have won 2 of their last 5, drawing 2 (D-D-W-W-L, most recent first).
Freiburg have won 2 of their last 5, drawing 1 (L-L-W-D-W, most recent first).
The teams have met 14 times since 2019: Union Berlin 7, Freiburg 2, 5 drawn. The last meeting, on Mar 15, 2026, finished Union Berlin 1, Freiburg 0.