Cagliari
Como
Win Probability
Moneyline
CAG
+800
4.9% win prob
EV -27.9%
William Hill
Draw
Draw
+450
19% prob
EV +2.5%
William Hill
Moneyline
COM
-263
76.0% win prob
EV +2.4%
Betano
Como hosts Cagliari in a Serie A fixture where the simulation decisively favors the home side. Across 50,000 simulations, Como's attacking threat—particularly through their ability to create chances—projects to overwhelm a visiting Cagliari defence that struggles to generate offense on the road. The model's lean toward Como holds up in history: on games shaped like this one, AccuScore's picks have won 63% of the time across more than 2,000 similar matchups. For Cagliari to upset that projection, they would need to generate sustained pressure and convert rare opportunities, a difficult ask when the simulation gives them just a 4% path to victory.
| Book | CAG | EV | Draw | EV | COM | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle ↗ | +745 | -29.3% | +443 | +1.9% | -303 | +0.5% |
| Betano ↗ | +650 | -31.6% | +410 | -1.3% | -263 | +2.4% |
| bet365 ↗ | +750 | -29.2% | +375 | -4.6% | -303 | +0.5% |
| William Hill ↗ | +800 | -27.9% | +450 | +2.5% | -345 | -1.0% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle ↗ | 3 | -106 | -23.1% | -112 | +19.2% |
| Betano ↗ | 3 | -102 | -22.7% | -115 | +18.5% |
| bet365 ↗ | 2.5 | -200 | -22.1% | +162 | +32.3% |
Where to Bet
silverWin probability: 76.0%
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Serie A
AccuScore's simulation makes Como 76% to win, Cagliari 5%, with a 19% chance of a draw.
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Como the more likely winner at 76%, with a 19% chance of a draw. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Como a 76% chance of beating Cagliari, with 5% for Cagliari and 19% for a draw. Como are at home and favoured on these numbers.
How Cagliari and Como come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Cagliari have won 0 of their last 5, drawing 1 (L-L-L-L-D, most recent first).
Como have won 4 of their last 5, drawing 1 (W-W-W-W-D, most recent first).
The teams have met 4 times since 2024: Cagliari 0, Como 2, 2 drawn. The last meeting, on Mar 7, 2026, finished Como 2, Cagliari 1.