Paderborn
Bayer Leverkusen
Win Probability
Moneyline
PAD
11.6% win prob
Draw
Draw
16% prob
Moneyline
B04
72.0% win prob
Bayer Leverkusen hosts Paderborn in a fixture where the simulation decisively favours the home side. Over 50,000 simulations, the model projects a comfortable margin for B04, with the game turning on whether Paderborn can generate enough attacking thrust to stay competitive. On similar matchups—where the favourite carried a strong lean—AccuScore has hit 63% of the time across 2,051 graded games. For the travelling side to pull off an upset, they would need to suffocate Leverkusen's attack while converting chances at a rate well above their projection.
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betano ↗ | 3 | -250 | +1.9% | +205 | -9.3% |
Get one of today's Gold picks delivered every morning — free.
No spam. Unsubscribe anytime.
Bundesliga
AccuScore's simulation makes Bayer Leverkusen 72% to win, Paderborn 12%, with a 16% chance of a draw.
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Bayer Leverkusen the more likely winner at 72%, with a 16% chance of a draw. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Bayer Leverkusen a 72% chance of beating Paderborn, with 12% for Paderborn and 16% for a draw. Bayer Leverkusen are at home and favoured on these numbers.
How Paderborn and Bayer Leverkusen come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Paderborn have won 2 of their last 5, drawing 2 (D-W-D-L-W, most recent first).
Bayer Leverkusen have won 3 of their last 5 (L-L-W-W-W, most recent first).
The teams have met 2 times since 2019: Paderborn 0, Bayer Leverkusen 2. The last meeting, on Jan 19, 2020, finished Bayer Leverkusen 4, Paderborn 1.