EPL • Sat, Nov 21, 15:00
Chelsea hosts Leeds United in a fixture where the simulation decisively favours the home side. Across 50,000 simulations, Chelsea's attacking threat projects to 2.4 goals, with the most likely outcome a 2–0 home win occurring in 11% of runs. Leeds United will need to disrupt Chelsea's efficiency in the final third—the model's lean hinges entirely on the visitors' inability to generate consistent chances while defending set pieces and transitions.
See the model's win probabilities, projected and most-likely score, the positive-EV edge with its price, the record behind it, and the full write-up — for this game and every game.
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EPL
AccuScore's simulation makes Chelsea 71% to win, Leeds United 11%, with a 18% chance of a draw.
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Chelsea the more likely winner at 71%, with a 18% chance of a draw. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Chelsea a 71% chance of beating Leeds United, with 11% for Leeds United and 18% for a draw. Chelsea are at home and favoured on these numbers.
How Leeds United and Chelsea come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Leeds United have won 0 of their last 5, drawing 3 (L-D-D-L-D, most recent first).
Chelsea have won 4 of their last 5 (W-L-W-W-W, most recent first).
The teams have met 8 times since 2020: Leeds United 2, Chelsea 4, 2 drawn. The last meeting, on Feb 11, 2026, finished Leeds United 2, Chelsea 2.