Arsenal FC
Newcastle United
Win Probability
Moneyline
ARS
54.2% win prob
Draw
Draw
30% prob
Moneyline
NEW
16.2% win prob
Arsenal FC travels to Newcastle United as clear favorites in the simulation's 50,000 runs, though the Magpies remain capable of an upset. The model projects a low-scoring affair, with a 1–0 Arsenal victory the single most likely outcome at 18% of simulations. Newcastle's task hinges on limiting Arsenal's attacking threat; the visitors' offensive pressure in games shaped like this one has historically been decisive. On similar matchups, AccuScore's model side has won 75% of the time across comparable win-probability shapes. For Newcastle to prevail, they would need to absorb pressure and capitalize on rare counterattacking opportunities.
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EPL
AccuScore's simulation makes Arsenal FC 54% to win, Newcastle United 16%, with a 30% chance of a draw.
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Arsenal FC the more likely winner at 54%, with a 30% chance of a draw. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Newcastle United a 16% chance of beating Arsenal FC, with 54% for Arsenal FC and 30% for a draw. Newcastle United are at home but the underdog on these numbers.
How Arsenal FC and Newcastle United come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Arsenal FC have won 5 of their last 5 (W-W-W-W-W, most recent first).
Newcastle United have won 1 of their last 5 (L-W-L-L-L, most recent first).
The teams have met 18 times since 2017: Arsenal FC 13, Newcastle United 4, 1 drawn. The last meeting, on Apr 25, 2026, finished Newcastle United 0, Arsenal FC 1.