Mainz
Augsburg
Win Probability
Moneyline
M05
+138
36.0% win prob
EV -7.2%
Pinnacle
Draw
Draw
+285
26% prob
EV -0.5%
Betano
Moneyline
FCA
+175
38.3% win prob
EV +2.7%
bet365
Mainz 05 travels to Augsburg in a matchup the simulation favours the hosts only barely—this is a coin-flip. The model has graded 770 similar games where the away side carried 60–70% win probability, posting a 56% record with a 4.4% return, and across eight other games with this statistical shape, the model's side won seven. Both teams project to 1.7 goals, with a 9% chance of finishing level; the game turns on whether either can break through when chances come. For Augsburg to pull clear, Mainz 05 would need to fail to generate the scoring threat their away-side role typically demands.
| Book | M05 | EV | Draw | EV | FCA | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle ↗ | +138 | -7.2% | +285 | -0.5% | +173 | +2.3% |
| Betano ↗ | +135 | -7.7% | +285 | -0.5% | +172 | +2.1% |
| bet365 ↗ | +125 | -9.5% | +280 | -1.2% | +175 | +2.7% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle ↗ | 3.5 | +111 | -6.0% | -133 | +1.0% |
| Betano ↗ | 3.5 | +112 | -5.8% | -133 | +1.0% |
| bet365 ↗ | 3.5 | +110 | -6.2% | -137 | +0.4% |
Where to Bet
silverWin probability: 38.3%
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Bundesliga
AccuScore's simulation makes Augsburg 38% to win, Mainz 36%, with a 26% chance of a draw.
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Augsburg the more likely winner at 38%, with a 26% chance of a draw. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Augsburg a 38% chance of beating Mainz, with 36% for Mainz and 26% for a draw. Augsburg are at home and favoured on these numbers.
How Mainz and Augsburg come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Mainz have won 1 of their last 5 (L-L-W-L-L, most recent first).
Augsburg have won 1 of their last 5, drawing 2 (L-D-L-D-W, most recent first).
The teams have met 18 times since 2017: Mainz 8, Augsburg 9, 1 drawn. The last meeting, on Feb 7, 2026, finished Augsburg 0, Mainz 2.