Atlético Madrid
Getafe
Win Probability
Moneyline
ATL
-154
51.9% win prob
EV -7.2%
Betano
Draw
Draw
+285
29% prob
EV +6.0%
Pinnacle
Moneyline
GET
+460
19.0% win prob
EV +3.2%
Betano
Atlético Madrid travels to Getafe in a fixture where the simulation clearly favours the visitors. The model has run 50,000 simulations and projects a decisive advantage for Atlético Madrid, driven by their attacking potency—the away side's ability to create chances and convert them is the fulcrum on which this match turns. Across eight comparable games with similar win-probability shapes, AccuScore's model side won six times. For Getafe to upset these projections, they would need to shut down Atlético Madrid's attacking threat and capitalize on limited offensive opportunities of their own.
| Book | ATL | EV | Draw | EV | GET | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle ↗ | -159 | -7.7% | +285 | +6.0% | +454 | +2.6% |
| Betano ↗ | -154 | -7.2% | +280 | +5.3% | +460 | +3.2% |
| bet365 ↗ | -161 | -7.9% | +270 | +3.8% | +425 | -0.1% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle ↗ | 2.5 | +105 | -13.3% | -125 | +7.7% |
| Betano ↗ | 2.5 | +112 | -12.0% | -133 | +6.2% |
| bet365 ↗ | 2.5 | +110 | -12.4% | -137 | +5.5% |
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La Liga
AccuScore's simulation makes Atlético Madrid 52% to win, Getafe 19%, with a 29% chance of a draw.
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Atlético Madrid the more likely winner at 52%, with a 29% chance of a draw. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Getafe a 19% chance of beating Atlético Madrid, with 52% for Atlético Madrid and 29% for a draw. Getafe are at home but the underdog on these numbers.
How Atlético Madrid and Getafe come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Atlético Madrid have won 5 of their last 5 (W-W-W-W-W, most recent first).
Getafe have won 2 of their last 5, drawing 1 (W-L-D-L-W, most recent first).
The teams have met 17 times since 2018: Atlético Madrid 13, Getafe 1, 3 drawn. The last meeting, on Mar 14, 2026, finished Getafe 0, Atlético Madrid 1.