Memphis Grizzlies
4-0
Portland Trail Blazers
3-0
Win Probability
The Memphis Grizzlies travel to Portland to face the Portland Trail Blazers with both teams unbeaten, though the simulation decisively favours the home side. Memphis has built its record through discipline and balance; Portland's strength will be tested by a Grizzlies attack that has yet to falter. The game turns on three-point shooting—a small margin in a tight projected score means that whoever commands the perimeter will likely control the result. AccuScore's model has backed the home team in games shaped like this one across 1273 graded contests, winning 69% of them. For Memphis to pull the upset, the Grizzlies would need to force enough Portland mistakes to overcome playing on the road against an undefeated opponent.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
1H MEM ML
MEM +194
-0.0% EV
32.9% leads · push 3.2%
Pinnacle ↗
1H POR ML
POR -222
-2.1% EV
63.9% leads · push 3.2%
bet365 ↗
2-way moneyline: a tie at the half returns the stake, so the tie is priced as a push.
1H Spread
MEM +4.5 -108
-1.6% EV
50.3% covers
Betano ↗
1H Spread
POR -4.5 -106
-1.7% EV
49.7% covers
bet365 ↗
1H Total
O 120.5 -106
-10.1% EV
41.1% over
Pinnacle ↗
1H Total
U 120.5 -108
+6.7% EV
58.9% under
Pinnacle ↗
| Book | Line | POR | EV | MEM | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle ↗ | -8 | +100 | -1.5% | -114 | -1.6% |
| Betfair ↗ | -7.5 | -120 | -4.1% | -120 | -4.3% |
| Betano ↗ | -8.5 | -105 | -4.1% | -115 | -0.5% |
| bet365 ↗ | -8 | -106 | -2.8% | -125 | -3.5% |
| Novig ↗ | -7.5 | -106 | -1.3% | +104 | +0.9% |
| Book | POR | EV | MEM | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi ↗ | -290 | -2.6% | +240 | +0.1% |
| Polymarket ↗ | -284 | -2.3% | +245 | +0.9% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle ↗ | 233 | -109 | -4.4% | -103 | +1.7% |
| Betfair ↗ | 232.5 | -110 | -3.3% | -110 | -1.2% |
| Betano ↗ | 232.5 | -114 | -4.1% | -108 | -0.8% |
| bet365 ↗ | 232 | -125 | -4.8% | -106 | -1.5% |
| William Hill ↗ | 232.5 | -125 | -6.0% | -110 | -1.2% |
Share of bets (grey) and of money (green) on each side, per source. Sportsbook figures count tickets; Polymarket counts traders and Kalshi counts trades. Sources are shown separately, never averaged.
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NBA
AccuScore's simulation makes Portland Trail Blazers 71% to beat Memphis Grizzlies (30%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Portland Trail Blazers the more likely winner at 71%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Portland Trail Blazers a 71% chance of beating Memphis Grizzlies, against 30% for Memphis Grizzlies. Portland Trail Blazers are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Memphis Grizzlies (4-0 so far) project to finish 36.5–45.5 and make the playoffs in 35% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Portland Trail Blazers (3-0 so far) project to finish 50.1–31.9 and make the playoffs in 78% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Division title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Memphis Grizzlies | 36.5–45.5 | 6% | 35% |
| Portland Trail Blazers | 50.1–31.9 | 25% | 78% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NBA team's projection →
How Memphis Grizzlies and Portland Trail Blazers come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Memphis Grizzlies have won 4 of their last 4 (W-W-W-W, most recent first).
Portland Trail Blazers have won 3 of their last 3 (W-W-W, most recent first).
The teams have met 61 times since 2010: Memphis Grizzlies 33, Portland Trail Blazers 28. The last meeting, on Mar 4, 2026, finished Portland Trail Blazers 122, Memphis Grizzlies 114.
Memphis Grizzlies are 439-193 as favourite and 228-435 as underdog, and 296-382 on the road (44% of 678 games, 2010–2026).
Portland Trail Blazers are 415-180 as favourite and 218-469 as underdog, and 398-274 at home (59% of 672 games, 2010–2026).
| Record | MEM | POR |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 439-193 | 415-180 |
| As underdog | 228-435 | 218-469 |
| At home | 407-272 | 398-274 |
| On the road | 296-382 | 272-411 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the point spread. How the NBA odds have moved →