Indiana Pacers
2-3
Miami Heat
1-4
Win Probability
The Indiana Pacers visit Miami Heat in a matchup where the home side draws a clear simulation lean. Pascal Siakam has a 47% chance of exceeding 35 combined points, rebounds and assists, while Bam Adebayo projects at 49% to surpass 33—both players will shape the floor's spacing and interior control. The game hinges on bench production: Bobby Portis (48% to top 24) and Obi Toppin (48% to top 23) represent the depth that could swing momentum across 48 minutes. AccuScore's record on games shaped like this one stands at 55% across 1,231 graded instances. For Indiana to escape, it would need to limit Miami's secondary scorers while forcing enough volume through Siakam and Andrew Nembhard to overcome home-court efficiency.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
| Book | MIA | EV | IND | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi ↗ | -239 | -4.9% | +189 | +2.6% |
| Polymarket ↗ | -214 | -3.3% | +185 | +1.9% |
Share of bets (grey) and of money (green) on each side, per source. Sportsbook figures count tickets; Polymarket counts traders and Kalshi counts trades. Sources are shown separately, never averaged.
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NBA
AccuScore's simulation makes Miami Heat 64% to beat Indiana Pacers (36%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Miami Heat the more likely winner at 64%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Miami Heat a 64% chance of beating Indiana Pacers, against 36% for Indiana Pacers. Miami Heat are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Indiana Pacers (2-2 so far) project to finish 34.2–47.8 and make the playoffs in 34% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Miami Heat (0-4 so far) project to finish 38.0–44.0 and make the playoffs in 48% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Division title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Indiana Pacers | 34.2–47.8 | 7% | 34% |
| Miami Heat | 38.0–44.0 | 12% | 48% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NBA team's projection →
How Indiana Pacers and Miami Heat come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Indiana Pacers have won 2 of their last 5 (L-L-W-L-W, most recent first).
Miami Heat have won 1 of their last 5 (W-L-L-L-L, most recent first).
The teams have met 71 times since 2010: Indiana Pacers 32, Miami Heat 39. The last meeting, on Mar 29, 2026, finished Miami Heat 118, Indiana Pacers 135.
Indiana Pacers are 451-225 as favourite and 227-414 as underdog, and 295-398 on the road (43% of 693 games, 2010–2026).
Miami Heat are 587-273 as favourite and 208-299 as underdog, and 469-245 at home (66% of 714 games, 2010–2026).
| Record | IND | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 451-225 | 587-273 |
| As underdog | 227-414 | 208-299 |
| At home | 411-278 | 469-245 |
| On the road | 295-398 | 364-354 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the point spread. How the NBA odds have moved →