Houston Rockets
5-0
Dallas Mavericks
3-2
Win Probability
The Houston Rockets visit Dallas in a matchup between a perfect road team and a Mavericks squad still finding its footing at home. AccuScore's simulation leans decisively toward the Rockets, projecting them to control the game from start to finish. The outcome hinges on perimeter shooting: if Dallas can sustain three-point volume and efficiency, the Mavericks stay competitive, but Houston's defensive intensity on the wings is the likeliest deciding factor. On games shaped like this one—road favorites at 60–70% win probability—AccuScore's model has gone 59% over 1069 graded contests. For Dallas to pull off the upset, it would need to slow Houston's pace and force extended possessions that let its own offense settle into rhythm.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
1H HOU ML
HOU -169
-0.0% EV
60.6% leads · push 3.5%
bet365 ↗
1H DAL ML
DAL +150
-3.4% EV
35.9% leads · push 3.5%
Betfair ↗
2-way moneyline: a tie at the half returns the stake, so the tie is priced as a push.
| Book | Line | DAL | EV | HOU | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair ↗ | +6.5 | -120 | -4.2% | -120 | -4.2% |
| bet365 ↗ | +6.5 | -111 | -2.5% | -111 | -2.5% |
| Novig ↗ | +6.5 | +100 | +0.0% | -104 | -1.0% |
| ProphetX ↗ | +6.5 | -100 | +0.0% | -106 | -1.4% |
| Book | DAL | EV | HOU | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi ↗ | +189 | -2.2% | -239 | -2.6% |
| Polymarket ↗ | +203 | +0.1% | -235 | -2.3% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair ↗ | 224.5 | -110 | +0.2% | -110 | -4.8% |
| bet365 ↗ | 225.5 | -110 | -2.0% | -111 | -2.8% |
| William Hill ↗ | 224.5 | -118 | -1.4% | -118 | -6.2% |
| Novig ↗ | 224.5 | +100 | +2.6% | -104 | -3.5% |
| ProphetX ↗ | 224.5 | -102 | +2.1% | -106 | -3.9% |
Share of bets (grey) and of money (green) on each side, per source. Sportsbook figures count tickets; Polymarket counts traders and Kalshi counts trades. Sources are shown separately, never averaged.
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NBA
AccuScore's simulation makes Houston Rockets 67% to beat Dallas Mavericks (33%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Houston Rockets the more likely winner at 67%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Dallas Mavericks a 33% chance of beating Houston Rockets, against 67% for Houston Rockets. Dallas Mavericks are at home but the underdog on these numbers.
Houston Rockets (5-0 so far) project to finish 54.7–27.3 and make the playoffs in 87% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Dallas Mavericks (3-2 so far) project to finish 36.2–45.8 and make the playoffs in 33% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Division title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Houston Rockets | 54.7–27.3 | 47% | 87% |
| Dallas Mavericks | 36.2–45.8 | 4% | 33% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NBA team's projection →
How Houston Rockets and Dallas Mavericks come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Houston Rockets have won 5 of their last 5 (W-W-W-W-W, most recent first).
Dallas Mavericks have won 3 of their last 5 (W-W-L-W-L, most recent first).
The teams have met 67 times since 2010: Houston Rockets 34, Dallas Mavericks 33. The last meeting, on Oct 21, 2026, finished Dallas Mavericks 110, Houston Rockets 128.
Houston Rockets are 544-249 as favourite and 179-334 as underdog, and 309-375 on the road (45% of 684 games, 2010–2026).
Dallas Mavericks are 440-217 as favourite and 226-420 as underdog, and 389-292 at home (57% of 681 games, 2010–2026).
| Record | HOU | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 544-249 | 440-217 |
| As underdog | 179-334 | 226-420 |
| At home | 433-255 | 389-292 |
| On the road | 309-375 | 310-380 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the point spread. How the NBA odds have moved →