Portland Trail Blazers
3-1
Utah Jazz
1-4
Win Probability
Portland Trail Blazers travel to Utah Jazz as clear favourites in a matchup where the visitor's depth could prove decisive. Deni Avdija has a 48% chance of exceeding 37 combined points, rebounds and assists, while Damian Lillard sits at 46% for 31. Utah's Brice Sensabaugh offers the home side's best individual projection at 50% to surpass 19, but the Jazz lack the multi-level scoring the simulation expects Portland to deploy. AccuScore's model has backed the away side in games shaped like this one 59% of the time across more than 1,000 graded contests. Utah would need a defensive effort that concentrates firepower on Portland's scorers while generating consistent offence from its own depth—a tall order against a travelling team favoured to win comfortably.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
1H POR ML
POR -179
-1.0% EV
60.9% leads · push 3.1%
bet365 ↗
1H UT ML
UT +210
+7.3% EV
36.0% leads · push 3.1%
Betano ↗
2-way moneyline: a tie at the half returns the stake, so the tie is priced as a push.
1H Spread
POR -4.5 -125
-7.8% EV
46.9% covers
Betfair ↗
1H Spread
UT +4.5 -110
+0.6% EV
53.1% covers
Betfair ↗
1H Total
O 118.5 -111
-5.5% EV
46.8% over
bet365 ↗
1H Total
U 118.5 -105
+2.0% EV
53.2% under
Pinnacle ↗
| Book | Line | UT | EV | POR | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle ↗ | +8.5 | -101 | +6.3% | -109 | -8.4% |
| Betfair ↗ | +8.5 | -110 | +4.0% | -110 | -8.6% |
| Betano ↗ | +8.5 | -110 | +4.0% | -111 | -8.8% |
| bet365 ↗ | +8 | -108 | +3.1% | -120 | -8.7% |
| Novig ↗ | +8.5 | -102 | +6.0% | -102 | -7.0% |
| Book | UT | EV | POR | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi ↗ | +252 | +8.4% | -306 | -5.7% |
| Polymarket ↗ | +257 | +9.3% | -300 | -5.5% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle ↗ | 231.5 | -111 | -1.6% | -103 | -1.6% |
| Betfair ↗ | 231.5 | -110 | -1.4% | -110 | -3.1% |
| Betano ↗ | 231.5 | -114 | -2.2% | -108 | -2.7% |
| bet365 ↗ | 231.5 | -125 | -4.2% | -105 | -2.1% |
| William Hill ↗ | 231.5 | -125 | -4.2% | -110 | -3.1% |
Share of bets (grey) and of money (green) on each side, per source. Sportsbook figures count tickets; Polymarket counts traders and Kalshi counts trades. Sources are shown separately, never averaged.
Get one of today's Gold picks delivered every morning — free.
No spam. Unsubscribe anytime.
NBA
AccuScore's simulation makes Portland Trail Blazers 67% to beat Utah Jazz (33%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Portland Trail Blazers the more likely winner at 67%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Utah Jazz a 33% chance of beating Portland Trail Blazers, against 67% for Portland Trail Blazers. Utah Jazz are at home but the underdog on these numbers.
Portland Trail Blazers (3-1 so far) project to finish 47.5–34.5 and make the playoffs in 71% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Utah Jazz (1-4 so far) project to finish 28.6–53.4 and make the playoffs in 15% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Division title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Portland Trail Blazers | 47.5–34.5 | 23% | 71% |
| Utah Jazz | 28.6–53.4 | 1% | 15% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NBA team's projection →
How Portland Trail Blazers and Utah Jazz come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Portland Trail Blazers have won 3 of their last 4 (L-W-W-W, most recent first).
Utah Jazz have won 1 of their last 5 (L-L-L-W-L, most recent first).
The teams have met 62 times since 2010: Portland Trail Blazers 31, Utah Jazz 31. The last meeting, on Mar 13, 2026, finished Utah Jazz 114, Portland Trail Blazers 124.
Portland Trail Blazers are 415-181 as favourite and 218-469 as underdog, and 272-411 on the road (40% of 683 games, 2010–2026).
Utah Jazz are 420-188 as favourite and 195-469 as underdog, and 386-282 at home (58% of 668 games, 2010–2026).
| Record | POR | UT |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 415-181 | 420-188 |
| As underdog | 218-469 | 195-469 |
| At home | 398-275 | 386-282 |
| On the road | 272-411 | 260-409 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the point spread. How the NBA odds have moved →