Cleveland Cavaliers
3-2
Milwaukee Bucks
1-4
Win Probability
Cleveland Cavaliers travel to Milwaukee to face the Bucks in a matchup where the simulation decisively favors the visitors. Donovan Mitchell projects a 50% chance of exceeding 33 combined points, rebounds and assists, while James Harden has a 46% chance at more than 31—both among the Cavaliers' most likely impact players. For Milwaukee, the scoring load spreads across multiple contributors, with Jaime Jaquez at 46% to surpass 24 combined and Ryan Rollins at 49% to exceed 23. On similar win-probability matchups, AccuScore's model has returned 69% accuracy across 461 graded games. The Bucks would need their role players to consolidate scoring efficiency in ways the simulation suggests is unlikely against a visiting team built around high-volume creation.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
1H CLE ML
CLE -250
-3.0% EV
64.9% leads · push 3.2%
bet365 ↗
1H MIL ML
MIL +225
+3.4% EV
31.9% leads · push 3.2%
Betano ↗
2-way moneyline: a tie at the half returns the stake, so the tie is priced as a push.
1H Spread
CLE -5.5 -102
-3.4% EV
47.1% covers
Pinnacle ↗
1H Spread
MIL +5.5 -110
+0.5% EV
52.9% covers
Betfair ↗
1H Total
O 114.5 -110
+13.3% EV
66.3% over
Betano ↗
1H Total
U 114.5 -103
-16.8% EV
33.7% under
Pinnacle ↗
| Book | Line | MIL | EV | CLE | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle ↗ | +9.5 | -103 | +2.7% | -108 | -5.2% |
| Betfair ↗ | +10.5 | -110 | +4.3% | -110 | -8.9% |
| Betano ↗ | +9.5 | -105 | +2.2% | -118 | -7.0% |
| bet365 ↗ | +7.5 | -105 | -3.5% | -132 | -4.0% |
| Novig ↗ | +9.5 | +102 | +4.0% | -104 | -4.4% |
| Book | MIL | EV | CLE | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi ↗ | +313 | +6.4% | -360 | -3.6% |
| Polymarket ↗ | +319 | +7.2% | -373 | -3.9% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle ↗ | 235.5 | -109 | -0.8% | -106 | -2.7% |
| Betfair ↗ | 235.5 | -110 | -1.0% | -110 | -3.5% |
| Betano ↗ | 235.5 | -114 | -1.8% | -108 | -3.1% |
| bet365 ↗ | 234.5 | -132 | -2.8% | -101 | -3.9% |
| William Hill ↗ | 235.5 | -118 | -2.6% | -118 | -5.0% |
Share of bets (grey) and of money (green) on each side, per source. Sportsbook figures count tickets; Polymarket counts traders and Kalshi counts trades. Sources are shown separately, never averaged.
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NBA
AccuScore's simulation makes Cleveland Cavaliers 73% to beat Milwaukee Bucks (27%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Cleveland Cavaliers the more likely winner at 73%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Milwaukee Bucks a 27% chance of beating Cleveland Cavaliers, against 73% for Cleveland Cavaliers. Milwaukee Bucks are at home but the underdog on these numbers.
Cleveland Cavaliers (3-2 so far) project to finish 44.0–38.0 and make the playoffs in 67% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Milwaukee Bucks (1-4 so far) project to finish 24.8–57.2 and make the playoffs in 11% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Division title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cleveland Cavaliers | 44.0–38.0 | 24% | 67% |
| Milwaukee Bucks | 24.8–57.2 | 1% | 11% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NBA team's projection →
How Cleveland Cavaliers and Milwaukee Bucks come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Cleveland Cavaliers have won 3 of their last 5 (L-W-W-W-L, most recent first).
Milwaukee Bucks have won 1 of their last 5 (L-W-L-L-L, most recent first).
The teams have met 62 times since 2010: Cleveland Cavaliers 32, Milwaukee Bucks 30. The last meeting, on Mar 17, 2026, finished Cleveland Cavaliers 123, Milwaukee Bucks 116.
Cleveland Cavaliers are 469-219 as favourite and 195-446 as underdog, and 299-396 on the road (43% of 695 games, 2010–2026).
Milwaukee Bucks are 511-251 as favourite and 173-372 as underdog, and 419-266 at home (61% of 685 games, 2010–2026).
| Record | CLE | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 469-219 | 511-251 |
| As underdog | 195-446 | 173-372 |
| At home | 406-296 | 419-266 |
| On the road | 299-396 | 306-378 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the point spread. How the NBA odds have moved →