NBA
Minnesota Timberwolves
4-2
San Antonio Spurs
3-2
Win Probability
The San Antonio Spurs host the Minnesota Timberwolves in a matchup where the simulation decisively favours the home side. Victor Wembanyama has a 49% chance of exceeding 37 combined points, rebounds and assists, while Rudy Gobert projects at 50% to surpass 21—a gap that captures how the Spurs' depth is expected to overwhelm Minnesota's contributions. The game turns on whether the Timberwolves can generate enough offensive creation; Jaden McDaniels sits at 48% to beat 24 combined, but that will need support the model does not expect. AccuScore has recorded a 69% win rate over 1273 graded games shaped this way, backing the home team at this probability. For Minnesota to pull the upset, its secondary scorers would need to consistently beat their own projections.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
1H MIN ML
MIN +300
+8.4% EV
28.4% leads · push 3.2%
bet365 ↗
1H SA ML
SA -345
-4.3% EV
68.4% leads · push 3.2%
Betfair ↗
2-way moneyline: a tie at the half returns the stake, so the tie is priced as a push.
| Book | Line | SA | EV | MIN | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle ↗ | -12.5 | +103 | -7.0% | -116 | +3.6% |
| Betfair ↗ | -11.5 | -110 | -6.8% | -110 | +2.2% |
| Betano ↗ | -11.5 | -118 | -8.2% | -105 | +3.4% |
| bet365 ↗ | -12.5 | -105 | -8.6% | -116 | +3.6% |
| Novig ↗ | -12.5 | +106 | -6.3% | -108 | +5.5% |
| Book | SA | EV | MIN | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi ↗ | -490 | -3.8% | +398 | +8.0% |
| Polymarket ↗ | -513 | -4.2% | +434 | +12.2% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle ↗ | 226 | -112 | -1.5% | -102 | -1.7% |
| Betfair ↗ | 226.5 | -116 | -3.3% | -106 | -1.6% |
| Betano ↗ | 226.5 | -115 | -3.1% | -105 | -1.4% |
| bet365 ↗ | 226.5 | -112 | -2.5% | -109 | -2.3% |
| William Hill ↗ | 226.5 | -118 | -3.6% | -118 | -4.0% |
Share of bets (grey) and of money (green) on each side, per source. Sportsbook figures count tickets; Polymarket counts traders and Kalshi counts trades. Sources are shown separately, never averaged.
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AccuScore's simulation makes San Antonio Spurs 77% to beat Minnesota Timberwolves (23%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes San Antonio Spurs the more likely winner at 77%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives San Antonio Spurs a 77% chance of beating Minnesota Timberwolves, against 23% for Minnesota Timberwolves. San Antonio Spurs are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Minnesota Timberwolves (3-2 so far) project to finish 47.7–34.3 and make the playoffs in 72% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
San Antonio Spurs (3-2 so far) project to finish 53.8–28.2 and make the playoffs in 87% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Division title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota Timberwolves | 47.7–34.3 | 23% | 72% |
| San Antonio Spurs | 53.8–28.2 | 40% | 87% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NBA team's projection →
How Minnesota Timberwolves and San Antonio Spurs come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Minnesota Timberwolves have won 3 of their last 5 (W-L-L-W-W, most recent first).
San Antonio Spurs have won 3 of their last 5 (W-W-W-L-L, most recent first).
The teams have met 61 times since 2010: Minnesota Timberwolves 25, San Antonio Spurs 36. The last meeting, on May 15, 2026, finished San Antonio Spurs 139, Minnesota Timberwolves 109.
Minnesota Timberwolves are 346-206 as favourite and 208-506 as underdog, and 254-413 on the road (38% of 667 games, 2010–2026).
San Antonio Spurs are 638-213 as favourite and 162-312 as underdog, and 465-225 at home (67% of 690 games, 2010–2026).
| Record | MIN | SA |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 346-206 | 638-213 |
| As underdog | 208-506 | 162-312 |
| At home | 334-331 | 465-225 |
| On the road | 254-413 | 350-347 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the point spread. How the NBA odds have moved →