Oklahoma City Thunder
4-1
Houston Rockets
5-1
Win Probability
The Oklahoma City Thunder visit the Houston Rockets in a matchup the simulation leans slightly toward the home side. Shai Gilgeous Alexander has a 50% chance of exceeding 39 combined points, rebounds and assists, while Kevin Durant sits at 47% for the same threshold—a marginal difference that underscores how evenly matched their primary creators are. The game likely turns on whether Houston's supporting cast can sustain production: Amen Thompson projects at 49% to top 35 combined, versus Jared McCain at 47% for 24 combined. AccuScore's record on similarly shaped games has been flat over 243 prior instances, returning 12.1%. For Oklahoma City to pull the upset, it would need McCain or another secondary scorer to operate at the higher end of their range while Houston's depth stumbles.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
1H OKC ML
OKC +121
+0.4% EV
44.1% leads · push 3.3%
bet365 ↗
1H HOU ML
HOU -137
-2.9% EV
52.6% leads · push 3.3%
Pinnacle ↗
2-way moneyline: a tie at the half returns the stake, so the tie is priced as a push.
1H Spread
OKC +1.5 -109
-0.8% EV
51.3% covers
bet365 ↗
1H Spread
HOU -1.5 -110
-3.5% EV
48.7% covers
Betano ↗
1H Total
O 111.5 -111
-3.7% EV
48.7% over
Betano ↗
1H Total
U 111.5 -104
+0.3% EV
51.3% under
Pinnacle ↗
| Book | Line | HOU | EV | OKC | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle ↗ | -2 | -112 | -0.3% | +102 | -2.0% |
| Betfair ↗ | -2.5 | -111 | -1.6% | -111 | -3.3% |
| Betano ↗ | -3.5 | -108 | -4.1% | -114 | -0.9% |
| bet365 ↗ | -2 | -125 | -2.6% | -105 | -3.5% |
| Novig ↗ | -2.5 | +100 | +0.9% | -102 | -1.4% |
| Book | HOU | EV | OKC | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi ↗ | -143 | -2.2% | +118 | -2.3% |
| Polymarket ↗ | -145 | -2.5% | +127 | -0.3% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle ↗ | 219.5 | -108 | -2.7% | -104 | -0.1% |
| Betfair ↗ | 218.5 | -116 | -2.3% | -106 | -2.6% |
| Betano ↗ | 219.5 | -111 | -3.3% | -110 | -1.4% |
| bet365 ↗ | 219 | -120 | -3.9% | -110 | -2.4% |
| William Hill ↗ | 219.5 | -118 | -4.6% | -118 | -3.0% |
Share of bets (grey) and of money (green) on each side, per source. Sportsbook figures count tickets; Polymarket counts traders and Kalshi counts trades. Sources are shown separately, never averaged.
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NBA
AccuScore's simulation makes Houston Rockets 56% to beat Oklahoma City Thunder (44%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Houston Rockets the more likely winner at 56%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Houston Rockets a 56% chance of beating Oklahoma City Thunder, against 44% for Oklahoma City Thunder. Houston Rockets are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Oklahoma City Thunder (4-1 so far) project to finish 51.9–30.1 and make the playoffs in 82% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Houston Rockets (5-1 so far) project to finish 53.5–28.5 and make the playoffs in 85% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Division title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oklahoma City Thunder | 51.9–30.1 | 35% | 82% |
| Houston Rockets | 53.5–28.5 | 42% | 85% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NBA team's projection →
How Oklahoma City Thunder and Houston Rockets come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Oklahoma City Thunder have won 4 of their last 5 (L-W-W-W-W, most recent first).
Houston Rockets have won 4 of their last 5 (L-W-W-W-W, most recent first).
The teams have met 71 times since 2010: Oklahoma City Thunder 36, Houston Rockets 35. The last meeting, on Feb 7, 2026, finished Houston Rockets 112, Oklahoma City Thunder 106.
Oklahoma City Thunder are 682-252 as favourite and 160-271 as underdog, and 377-332 on the road (53% of 709 games, 2010–2026).
Houston Rockets are 544-250 as favourite and 179-334 as underdog, and 433-255 at home (63% of 688 games, 2010–2026).
| Record | OKC | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 682-252 | 544-250 |
| As underdog | 160-271 | 179-334 |
| At home | 495-221 | 433-255 |
| On the road | 377-332 | 309-376 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the point spread. How the NBA odds have moved →