Toronto Raptors
3-2
Los Angeles Lakers
4-2
Win Probability
The Los Angeles Lakers host the Toronto Raptors in a matchup the simulation leans toward the home side on. Walker Kessler projects to beat 24 points, rebounds and assists in nearly half his simulations, while RJ Barrett clears 31 combined in 47 percent of them—both players will shape how close this stays. Toronto's ability to generate pace and create secondary scoring determines whether it can overcome a Lakers team that the model favors slightly. AccuScore's lean toward home teams in this win-probability range has won 50 percent of the time across 242 similar games, returning 11.8 percent. For the Raptors to pull the upset, Jakob Poeltl would need to dominate on the glass and in pick-and-roll creation; if he clears his 16-point projection threshold in combined stats—which happens in 47 percent of simulations—Toronto gains real margin for error.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
1H TOR ML
TOR +122
+1.6% EV
45.0% leads · push 3.4%
bet365 ↗
1H LAL ML
LAL -139
-3.9% EV
51.6% leads · push 3.4%
Pinnacle ↗
2-way moneyline: a tie at the half returns the stake, so the tie is priced as a push.
1H Spread
TOR +1.5 -105
+0.6% EV
51.8% covers
Betano ↗
1H Spread
LAL -1.5 -111
-4.2% EV
48.2% covers
bet365 ↗
1H Total
O 109.5 -110
+12.2% EV
65.2% over
bet365 ↗
1H Total
U 109.5 -110
-16.8% EV
34.8% under
William Hill ↗
| Book | Line | LAL | EV | TOR | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle ↗ | -3 | -102 | -1.6% | -108 | -0.7% |
| Betfair ↗ | -2.5 | -110 | -1.8% | -110 | -2.7% |
| Betano ↗ | -3.5 | -114 | -5.6% | -108 | +0.7% |
| bet365 ↗ | -3 | -125 | -5.8% | -105 | -0.1% |
| Novig ↗ | -2.5 | -106 | -0.9% | +104 | +0.5% |
| Book | LAL | EV | TOR | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi ↗ | -143 | -3.2% | +124 | +0.3% |
| Polymarket ↗ | -145 | -3.4% | +127 | +1.0% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle ↗ | 225.5 | -110 | -2.3% | -102 | -0.5% |
| Betfair ↗ | 225.5 | -110 | -2.3% | -110 | -2.3% |
| Betano ↗ | 225.5 | -111 | -2.5% | -110 | -2.3% |
| bet365 ↗ | 228 | -106 | -7.0% | -125 | +0.3% |
| William Hill ↗ | 225.5 | -118 | -3.8% | -118 | -3.8% |
Share of bets (grey) and of money (green) on each side, per source. Sportsbook figures count tickets; Polymarket counts traders and Kalshi counts trades. Sources are shown separately, never averaged.
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NBA
AccuScore's simulation makes Los Angeles Lakers 55% to beat Toronto Raptors (45%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Los Angeles Lakers the more likely winner at 55%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Los Angeles Lakers a 55% chance of beating Toronto Raptors, against 45% for Toronto Raptors. Los Angeles Lakers are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Toronto Raptors (3-2 so far) project to finish 49.2–32.8 and make the playoffs in 81% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Los Angeles Lakers (4-2 so far) project to finish 44.0–38.0 and make the playoffs in 60% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Division title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Toronto Raptors | 49.2–32.8 | 25% | 81% |
| Los Angeles Lakers | 44.0–38.0 | 32% | 60% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NBA team's projection →
How Toronto Raptors and Los Angeles Lakers come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Toronto Raptors have won 3 of their last 5 (L-W-L-W-W, most recent first).
Los Angeles Lakers have won 3 of their last 5 (L-W-L-W-W, most recent first).
The teams have met 31 times since 2010: Toronto Raptors 16, Los Angeles Lakers 15. The last meeting, on Jan 18, 2026, finished Toronto Raptors 93, Los Angeles Lakers 110.
Toronto Raptors are 479-218 as favourite and 205-409 as underdog, and 309-377 on the road (45% of 686 games, 2010–2026).
Los Angeles Lakers are 428-220 as favourite and 212-440 as underdog, and 388-298 at home (57% of 686 games, 2010–2026).
| Record | TOR | LAL |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 479-218 | 428-220 |
| As underdog | 205-409 | 212-440 |
| At home | 409-284 | 388-298 |
| On the road | 309-377 | 284-396 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the point spread. How the NBA odds have moved →