NBA
Atlanta Hawks
3-4
Indiana Pacers
2-5
Win Probability
The Atlanta Hawks travel to face the Indiana Pacers in a matchup where the simulation clearly favors the visitors. Pascal Siakam projects to a 49% chance of exceeding 35 points, rebounds and assists, while Jalen Johnson sits at 48% for surpassing 39 combined — both offensive engines firing at near-identical rates. The game turns on whether Indiana can generate enough perimeter scoring; Andrew Nembhard has a 46% projection to beat 29 combined, but Atlanta's depth across Nickeil Alexander-Walker and Dyson Daniels at 46% and 47% respectively gives the Hawks multiple scoring avenues. In the 8 prior games with this win-probability shape, AccuScore's favored side won 5 of them. For Indiana to pull the upset, it would need to contain Atlanta's balanced attack and convert at a rate Nembhard and Siakam alone cannot sustain.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
1H ATL ML
ATL -156
+0.4% EV
59.3% leads · push 3.5%
bet365 ↗
1H IND ML
IND +150
-1.8% EV
37.2% leads · push 3.5%
Pinnacle ↗
2-way moneyline: a tie at the half returns the stake, so the tie is priced as a push.
| Book | Line | IND | EV | ATL | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle ↗ | +5.5 | -112 | -3.3% | -102 | +0.2% |
| Betfair ↗ | +4.5 | -120 | -7.8% | -120 | -0.5% |
| Betano ↗ | +5.5 | -118 | -4.5% | -105 | -0.5% |
| bet365 ↗ | +4.5 | -108 | -5.7% | -114 | +0.7% |
| Novig ↗ | +5.5 | -106 | -2.1% | +104 | +1.7% |
| Book | IND | EV | ATL | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi ↗ | +174 | -2.7% | -208 | -1.5% |
| Polymarket ↗ | +177 | -2.2% | -204 | -1.2% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle ↗ | 231 | -114 | -0.1% | -104 | -4.0% |
| Betfair ↗ | 231.5 | -110 | -0.4% | -110 | -4.2% |
| Betano ↗ | 231.5 | -114 | -1.2% | -108 | -3.8% |
| bet365 ↗ | 231.5 | -112 | -0.8% | -109 | -4.0% |
| William Hill ↗ | 231.5 | -118 | -2.0% | -118 | -5.7% |
Share of bets (grey) and of money (green) on each side, per source. Sportsbook figures count tickets; Polymarket counts traders and Kalshi counts trades. Sources are shown separately, never averaged.
Get one of today's Gold picks delivered every morning — free.
No spam. Unsubscribe anytime.
AccuScore's simulation makes Atlanta Hawks 66% to beat Indiana Pacers (35%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Atlanta Hawks the more likely winner at 66%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Indiana Pacers a 35% chance of beating Atlanta Hawks, against 66% for Atlanta Hawks. Indiana Pacers are at home but the underdog on these numbers.
Atlanta Hawks (3-4 so far) project to finish 45.5–36.5 and make the playoffs in 72% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Indiana Pacers (2-5 so far) project to finish 30.3–51.7 and make the playoffs in 23% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Division title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Atlanta Hawks | 45.5–36.5 | 37% | 72% |
| Indiana Pacers | 30.3–51.7 | 3% | 23% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NBA team's projection →
How Atlanta Hawks and Indiana Pacers come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Atlanta Hawks have won 1 of their last 5 (L-W-L-L-L, most recent first).
Indiana Pacers have won 1 of their last 5 (L-L-L-L-W, most recent first).
The teams have met 63 times since 2010: Atlanta Hawks 31, Indiana Pacers 32. The last meeting, on Jan 31, 2026, finished Atlanta Hawks 124, Indiana Pacers 129.
Atlanta Hawks are 402-214 as favourite and 246-446 as underdog, and 287-404 on the road (42% of 691 games, 2010–2026).
Indiana Pacers are 451-226 as favourite and 227-415 as underdog, and 411-279 at home (60% of 690 games, 2010–2026).
| Record | ATL | IND |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 402-214 | 451-226 |
| As underdog | 246-446 | 227-415 |
| At home | 395-288 | 411-279 |
| On the road | 287-404 | 295-399 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the point spread. How the NBA odds have moved →