NBA
Sacramento Kings
0-6
Dallas Mavericks
4-2
Win Probability
The Dallas Mavericks host a Sacramento Kings team fighting to snap a winless streak, and the simulation decisively favours the home side. Domantas Sabonis projects at a 50% chance to exceed 35 points, rebounds and assists, while Daniel Gafford sits at 49% for the same threshold — both anchors will shape possession value. The game hinges on whether Sacramento's perimeter creation can keep pace; Darius Acuff carries a 46% probability of clearing 35 combined stats, and his offensive load will tell whether the Kings can manufacture enough scoring to stay close. AccuScore's model has returned 69% win-probability calls on games shaped like this one, a track record built across more than a thousand games. For Sacramento to overcome the lean, it would need Sabonis and Acuff both to post nights well above their projections while containing multiple Dallas scorers simultaneously.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
1H SAC ML
SAC +252
+3.2% EV
29.4% leads · push 3.0%
Pinnacle ↗
1H DAL ML
DAL -250
-1.2% EV
67.6% leads · push 3.0%
bet365 ↗
2-way moneyline: a tie at the half returns the stake, so the tie is priced as a push.
| Book | Line | DAL | EV | SAC | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle ↗ | -11 | +100 | -3.2% | -115 | -0.2% |
| Betfair ↗ | -9.5 | -110 | -1.0% | -105 | -2.5% |
| Betano ↗ | -10.5 | -108 | -3.5% | -115 | -1.7% |
| bet365 ↗ | -10.5 | -110 | -3.9% | -111 | -0.9% |
| Novig ↗ | -10.5 | -102 | -2.2% | -102 | +1.2% |
| Book | DAL | EV | SAC | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi ↗ | -430 | -3.0% | +351 | +3.7% |
| Polymarket ↗ | -421 | -2.9% | +358 | +4.5% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle ↗ | 231.5 | -111 | +0.8% | -105 | -4.6% |
| Betfair ↗ | 233.5 | -110 | -3.3% | -110 | -1.2% |
| Betano ↗ | 233.5 | -108 | -2.9% | -114 | -2.0% |
| bet365 ↗ | 232.5 | -111 | -1.1% | -110 | -3.7% |
| William Hill ↗ | 232.5 | -118 | -2.4% | -118 | -5.2% |
Share of bets (grey) and of money (green) on each side, per source. Sportsbook figures count tickets; Polymarket counts traders and Kalshi counts trades. Sources are shown separately, never averaged.
Get one of today's Gold picks delivered every morning — free.
No spam. Unsubscribe anytime.
AccuScore's simulation makes Dallas Mavericks 76% to beat Sacramento Kings (24%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Dallas Mavericks the more likely winner at 76%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Dallas Mavericks a 76% chance of beating Sacramento Kings, against 24% for Sacramento Kings. Dallas Mavericks are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Sacramento Kings (0-6 so far) project to finish 19.5–62.5 and make the playoffs in 3% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Dallas Mavericks (4-2 so far) project to finish 37.6–44.4 and make the playoffs in 37% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Division title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sacramento Kings | 19.5–62.5 | 1% | 3% |
| Dallas Mavericks | 37.6–44.4 | 4% | 37% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NBA team's projection →
How Sacramento Kings and Dallas Mavericks come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Sacramento Kings have won 0 of their last 5 (L-L-L-L-L, most recent first).
Dallas Mavericks have won 4 of their last 5 (W-W-W-L-W, most recent first).
The teams have met 56 times since 2010: Sacramento Kings 25, Dallas Mavericks 31. The last meeting, on Feb 26, 2026, finished Sacramento Kings 130, Dallas Mavericks 121.
Sacramento Kings are 229-166 as favourite and 246-585 as underdog, and 225-421 on the road (35% of 646 games, 2010–2026).
Dallas Mavericks are 440-217 as favourite and 227-420 as underdog, and 390-292 at home (57% of 682 games, 2010–2026).
| Record | SAC | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 229-166 | 440-217 |
| As underdog | 246-585 | 227-420 |
| At home | 287-358 | 390-292 |
| On the road | 225-421 | 310-380 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the point spread. How the NBA odds have moved →