NBA
New Orleans Pelicans
2-4
Memphis Grizzlies
6-0
Win Probability
The Memphis Grizzlies host the New Orleans Pelicans in a matchup where the simulation leans clearly toward the home side. Dejounte Murray projects a 49% chance of exceeding 28 combined points, rebounds and assists, while Cedric Coward has a 50% chance of surpassing 22 in the same categories. The game turns on perimeter execution: New Orleans must generate consistent outside scoring to keep pace, but the Grizzlies' depth gives them the advantage in that battle. AccuScore's model has produced a 50% win rate on games shaped like this one across 242 graded matchups, returning 11.8%. For New Orleans to pull the upset, they would need their role players to outperform projections while limiting Memphis's bench contributions.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
1H NO ML
NO +146
+1.7% EV
40.8% leads · push 3.1%
Pinnacle ↗
1H MEM ML
MEM -161
-3.0% EV
56.1% leads · push 3.1%
Betano ↗
2-way moneyline: a tie at the half returns the stake, so the tie is priced as a push.
| Book | Line | MEM | EV | NO | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle ↗ | -5 | -108 | -3.1% | -103 | +0.7% |
| Betfair ↗ | -4.5 | -120 | -4.0% | -120 | -4.3% |
| Betano ↗ | -4.5 | -115 | -3.1% | -105 | -1.4% |
| bet365 ↗ | -5 | -106 | -2.7% | -125 | -3.6% |
| Novig ↗ | -4.5 | -108 | -1.7% | +106 | +1.3% |
| Book | MEM | EV | NO | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi ↗ | -200 | -4.3% | +159 | +0.6% |
| Polymarket ↗ | -196 | -4.0% | +169 | +2.6% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle ↗ | 233 | -109 | +0.1% | -105 | -3.3% |
| Betfair ↗ | 233.5 | -110 | -1.2% | -110 | -3.3% |
| Betano ↗ | 233.5 | -111 | -1.4% | -110 | -3.3% |
| bet365 ↗ | 233.5 | -135 | -5.5% | +100 | -1.1% |
| William Hill ↗ | 233.5 | -118 | -2.8% | -118 | -4.8% |
Share of bets (grey) and of money (green) on each side, per source. Sportsbook figures count tickets; Polymarket counts traders and Kalshi counts trades. Sources are shown separately, never averaged.
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AccuScore's simulation makes Memphis Grizzlies 61% to beat New Orleans Pelicans (39%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Memphis Grizzlies the more likely winner at 61%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Memphis Grizzlies a 61% chance of beating New Orleans Pelicans, against 39% for New Orleans Pelicans. Memphis Grizzlies are at home and favoured on these numbers.
New Orleans Pelicans (2-4 so far) project to finish 36.5–45.5 and make the playoffs in 35% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Memphis Grizzlies (6-0 so far) project to finish 41.1–40.9 and make the playoffs in 48% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Division title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| New Orleans Pelicans | 36.5–45.5 | 4% | 35% |
| Memphis Grizzlies | 41.1–40.9 | 8% | 48% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NBA team's projection →
How New Orleans Pelicans and Memphis Grizzlies come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
New Orleans Pelicans have won 2 of their last 5 (W-W-L-L-L, most recent first).
Memphis Grizzlies have won 5 of their last 5 (W-W-W-W-W, most recent first).
The teams have met 62 times since 2011: New Orleans Pelicans 28, Memphis Grizzlies 34. The last meeting, on Jan 30, 2026, finished Memphis Grizzlies 106, New Orleans Pelicans 114.
New Orleans Pelicans are 286-196 as favourite and 249-519 as underdog, and 236-420 on the road (36% of 656 games, 2010–2026).
Memphis Grizzlies are 440-193 as favourite and 229-435 as underdog, and 408-272 at home (60% of 680 games, 2010–2026).
| Record | NO | MEM |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 286-196 | 440-193 |
| As underdog | 249-519 | 229-435 |
| At home | 331-328 | 408-272 |
| On the road | 236-420 | 297-382 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the point spread. How the NBA odds have moved →