NBA
Milwaukee Bucks
1-5
Minnesota Timberwolves
4-3
Win Probability
The Milwaukee Bucks travel to face the Minnesota Timberwolves in a matchup where the simulation decisively favours the home side. LaMelo Ball has a 48% chance of exceeding 31 combined points, rebounds and assists, while Jaime Jaquez projects at 48% to surpass 23 in the same category—a gap that reflects Minnesota's overall offensive advantage. The game hinges on whether Milwaukee can generate enough depth scoring; Kel'el Ware and Ryan Rollins each have 47-48% chances to clear 21 combined points and rebounds, but both would need to hit those marks for the Bucks to stay close. AccuScore's model has gone 8-for-8 on similar games across other matchups. For Milwaukee to pull the upset, it would need multiple role players to simultaneously exceed their individual thresholds while holding Minnesota well below its projected output.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
1H MIL ML
MIL +263
-2.6% EV
25.3% leads · push 2.9%
Pinnacle ↗
1H MIN ML
MIN -270
+0.6% EV
71.8% leads · push 2.9%
Betano ↗
2-way moneyline: a tie at the half returns the stake, so the tie is priced as a push.
1H Spread
MIL +5.5 +100
-4.8% EV
45.1% covers
Betfair ↗
1H Spread
MIN -5.5 -115
+1.3% EV
54.9% covers
Betano ↗
1H Total
O 113.5 -109
+11.1% EV
63.7% over
bet365 ↗
1H Total
U 113.5 -102
-14.1% EV
36.3% under
Pinnacle ↗
| Book | Line | MIN | EV | MIL | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle ↗ | -11.5 | -104 | -1.0% | -106 | -1.4% |
| Betfair ↗ | -10.5 | -110 | +0.5% | -110 | -5.0% |
| Betano ↗ | -11.5 | -105 | -1.2% | -118 | -3.8% |
| bet365 ↗ | -10 | -125 | -0.5% | -105 | -5.8% |
| Novig ↗ | -11.5 | +102 | +0.5% | -104 | -1.0% |
| Book | MIN | EV | MIL | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi ↗ | -458 | -0.5% | +373 | -5.5% |
| Polymarket ↗ | -448 | -0.3% | +381 | -4.8% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle ↗ | 233.5 | -110 | -4.3% | -102 | +1.6% |
| Betfair ↗ | 232.5 | -116 | -3.0% | -106 | -1.9% |
| Betano ↗ | 233.5 | -114 | -5.0% | -108 | +0.2% |
| bet365 ↗ | 233 | -125 | -5.6% | -105 | -0.4% |
| William Hill ↗ | 233.5 | -118 | -5.8% | -118 | -1.9% |
Share of bets (grey) and of money (green) on each side, per source. Sportsbook figures count tickets; Polymarket counts traders and Kalshi counts trades. Sources are shown separately, never averaged.
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AccuScore's simulation makes Minnesota Timberwolves 81% to beat Milwaukee Bucks (19%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Minnesota Timberwolves the more likely winner at 81%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Minnesota Timberwolves a 81% chance of beating Milwaukee Bucks, against 19% for Milwaukee Bucks. Minnesota Timberwolves are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Milwaukee Bucks (1-5 so far) project to finish 23.4–58.6 and make the playoffs in 9% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Minnesota Timberwolves (4-3 so far) project to finish 49.4–32.6 and make the playoffs in 76% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Division title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Milwaukee Bucks | 23.4–58.6 | 1% | 9% |
| Minnesota Timberwolves | 49.4–32.6 | 27% | 76% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NBA team's projection →
How Milwaukee Bucks and Minnesota Timberwolves come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Milwaukee Bucks have won 1 of their last 5 (L-L-W-L-L, most recent first).
Minnesota Timberwolves have won 2 of their last 5 (L-W-L-L-W, most recent first).
The teams have met 31 times since 2010: Milwaukee Bucks 19, Minnesota Timberwolves 12. The last meeting, on Jan 13, 2026, finished Minnesota Timberwolves 139, Milwaukee Bucks 106.
Milwaukee Bucks are 511-251 as favourite and 173-373 as underdog, and 306-378 on the road (45% of 684 games, 2010–2026).
Minnesota Timberwolves are 346-206 as favourite and 208-507 as underdog, and 334-331 at home (50% of 665 games, 2010–2026).
| Record | MIL | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 511-251 | 346-206 |
| As underdog | 173-373 | 208-507 |
| At home | 419-267 | 334-331 |
| On the road | 306-378 | 254-414 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the point spread. How the NBA odds have moved →