Utah Jazz
1-5
San Antonio Spurs
4-2
Win Probability
The San Antonio Spurs host the Utah Jazz in a matchup that AccuScore's simulation decisively favours to the home side. Victor Wembanyama projects to have a 47% chance of exceeding 41 combined points, rebounds and assists, while Ace Bailey sits at 46% to clear 21 in the same category—a gap that reflects how thoroughly the model expects San Antonio to control the floor. The game turns on whether Utah can generate enough perimeter scoring; Brice Sensabaugh has only a 49% chance to beat 18 combined, and if the Jazz's guards cannot complement him, the scoring margin widens quickly. AccuScore's model has won 8 of 8 graded games shaped like this one across its track record. For Utah to pull the upset, role players would need to hit at historically high rates while San Antonio's bench contributors underperformed their norms.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
1H UT ML
UT +458
+5.6% EV
19.5% leads · push 2.4%
Pinnacle ↗
1H SA ML
SA -500
-1.9% EV
78.1% leads · push 2.4%
bet365 ↗
2-way moneyline: a tie at the half returns the stake, so the tie is priced as a push.
1H Spread
UT +9.5 -114
-0.5% EV
52.8% covers
Betano ↗
1H Spread
SA -9.5 +100
-2.8% EV
47.2% covers
Betfair ↗
1H Total
O 112.5 +100
+13.6% EV
63.6% over
Pinnacle ↗
1H Total
U 112.5 -115
-16.0% EV
36.4% under
Pinnacle ↗
| Book | Line | SA | EV | UT | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle ↗ | -16 | -105 | -4.7% | -105 | +2.4% |
| Betfair ↗ | -15.5 | -125 | -6.9% | -110 | -0.3% |
| Betano ↗ | -15.5 | -114 | -5.0% | -108 | +0.2% |
| bet365 ↗ | -16.5 | -104 | -6.1% | -116 | +1.4% |
| Novig ↗ | -15.5 | -111 | -4.5% | +106 | +3.7% |
| Book | SA | EV | UT | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi ↗ | -967 | -1.8% | +756 | +4.4% |
| Polymarket ↗ | -851 | -1.2% | +698 | +0.7% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle ↗ | 229.5 | -108 | -0.5% | -106 | -2.8% |
| Betfair ↗ | 230.5 | -106 | -2.1% | -114 | -2.4% |
| Betano ↗ | 229.5 | -111 | -1.1% | -110 | -3.6% |
| bet365 ↗ | 230.5 | -125 | -5.6% | -104 | -0.3% |
| William Hill ↗ | 229.5 | -118 | -2.5% | -118 | -5.1% |
Share of bets (grey) and of money (green) on each side, per source. Sportsbook figures count tickets; Polymarket counts traders and Kalshi counts trades. Sources are shown separately, never averaged.
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NBA
AccuScore's simulation makes San Antonio Spurs 87% to beat Utah Jazz (13%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes San Antonio Spurs the more likely winner at 87%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives San Antonio Spurs a 87% chance of beating Utah Jazz, against 13% for Utah Jazz. San Antonio Spurs are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Utah Jazz (1-5 so far) project to finish 27.4–54.6 and make the playoffs in 12% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
San Antonio Spurs (4-2 so far) project to finish 53.6–28.4 and make the playoffs in 86% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Division title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Utah Jazz | 27.4–54.6 | 1% | 12% |
| San Antonio Spurs | 53.6–28.4 | 39% | 86% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NBA team's projection →
How Utah Jazz and San Antonio Spurs come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Utah Jazz have won 1 of their last 5 (L-L-L-L-W, most recent first).
San Antonio Spurs have won 4 of their last 5 (W-W-W-W-L, most recent first).
The teams have met 61 times since 2010: Utah Jazz 22, San Antonio Spurs 39. The last meeting, on Oct 28, 2026, finished San Antonio Spurs 117, Utah Jazz 111.
Utah Jazz are 420-188 as favourite and 195-470 as underdog, and 260-409 on the road (39% of 669 games, 2010–2026).
San Antonio Spurs are 639-213 as favourite and 162-312 as underdog, and 466-225 at home (67% of 691 games, 2010–2026).
| Record | UT | SA |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 420-188 | 639-213 |
| As underdog | 195-470 | 162-312 |
| At home | 386-283 | 466-225 |
| On the road | 260-409 | 350-347 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the point spread. How the NBA odds have moved →