NBA • Tue, Nov 3, 02:00
The Denver Nuggets host the Portland Trail Blazers in a matchup the simulation favours slightly to the home side. Nikola Jokic projects to have a 46% chance of surpassing 33 points and rebounds, while Damian Lillard has a 45% chance to exceed 23 points and assists—both near the threshold that would swing the game. Denver's depth gives it the statistical advantage here: Aaron Gordon has a 50% chance to beat 20 points, rebounds and assists, matching the highest individual projection on either roster.
See the model's win probabilities, projected and most-likely score, the positive-EV edge with its price, the record behind it, and the full write-up — for this game and every game.
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Portland Trail Blazers (4-1 so far) project to finish 48.9–33.1 and make the playoffs in 74% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Denver Nuggets (3-2 so far) project to finish 45.8–36.2 and make the playoffs in 65% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Division title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Portland Trail Blazers | 48.9–33.1 | 27% | 74% |
| Denver Nuggets | 45.8–36.2 | 18% | 65% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NBA team's projection →
NBA
AccuScore's simulation makes Denver Nuggets 59% to beat Portland Trail Blazers (41%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Denver Nuggets the more likely winner at 59%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Denver Nuggets a 59% chance of beating Portland Trail Blazers, against 41% for Portland Trail Blazers. Denver Nuggets are at home and favoured on these numbers.
How Portland Trail Blazers and Denver Nuggets come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Portland Trail Blazers have won 4 of their last 5 (W-L-W-W-W, most recent first).
Denver Nuggets have won 3 of their last 5 (W-W-L-W-L, most recent first).
The teams have met 75 times since 2010: Portland Trail Blazers 34, Denver Nuggets 41. The last meeting, on Apr 6, 2026, finished Portland Trail Blazers 132, Denver Nuggets 137.
Portland Trail Blazers are 416-181 as favourite and 218-469 as underdog, and 273-411 on the road (40% of 684 games, 2010–2026).
Denver Nuggets are 549-251 as favourite and 206-320 as underdog, and 469-228 at home (67% of 697 games, 2010–2026).
| Record | POR | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 416-181 | 549-251 |
| As underdog | 218-469 | 206-320 |
| At home | 398-275 | 469-228 |
| On the road | 273-411 | 329-367 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the point spread. How the NBA odds have moved →