Miami Heat
2-4
Los Angeles Lakers
5-2
Win Probability
The Los Angeles Lakers host the Miami Heat in a matchup that leans slightly toward the home side. AccuScore's simulation has recorded a 50% win rate across 242 games shaped like this one, a narrow margin that reflects how little separates these teams. The outcome hinges on three-point shooting; Miami's accuracy from distance will determine whether the Heat can match Los Angeles's scoring in a game projected to be decided by fewer than two points. In eight comparable contests, the model's favored side won exactly half. For Miami to pull off the upset, the Heat would need to weather early runs and keep pace despite travelling into a Lakers side that has the slight statistical lean.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
1H MIA ML
MIA +104
-2.0% EV
45.3% leads · push 3.5%
bet365 ↗
1H LAL ML
LAL -125
-2.2% EV
51.2% leads · push 3.5%
bet365 ↗
2-way moneyline: a tie at the half returns the stake, so the tie is priced as a push.
| Book | Line | LAL | EV | MIA | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle ↗ | -2 | -105 | +0.3% | -105 | -2.6% |
| Betfair ↗ | -2.5 | -111 | -2.3% | -111 | -2.7% |
| Betano ↗ | -2.5 | -105 | -1.0% | -118 | -4.0% |
| bet365 ↗ | -2 | -120 | -2.7% | -111 | -3.8% |
| Novig ↗ | -1.5 | -111 | +0.1% | +106 | -1.3% |
| Book | LAL | EV | MIA | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi ↗ | -131 | -1.9% | +109 | -2.6% |
| Polymarket ↗ | -134 | -2.3% | +116 | -1.0% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle ↗ | 237.5 | -109 | -2.0% | -103 | -0.8% |
| Betfair ↗ | 237.5 | -111 | -2.4% | -111 | -2.6% |
| Betano ↗ | 237.5 | -111 | -2.4% | -110 | -2.4% |
| bet365 ↗ | 237.5 | -111 | -2.4% | -110 | -2.4% |
| William Hill ↗ | 237.5 | -118 | -3.7% | -118 | -3.9% |
Share of bets (grey) and of money (green) on each side, per source. Sportsbook figures count tickets; Polymarket counts traders and Kalshi counts trades. Sources are shown separately, never averaged.
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NBA
AccuScore's simulation makes Los Angeles Lakers 55% to beat Miami Heat (45%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Los Angeles Lakers the more likely winner at 55%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Los Angeles Lakers a 55% chance of beating Miami Heat, against 45% for Miami Heat. Los Angeles Lakers are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Miami Heat (2-4 so far) project to finish 41.8–40.2 and make the playoffs in 61% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Los Angeles Lakers (4-2 so far) project to finish 44.3–37.7 and make the playoffs in 61% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Division title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Miami Heat | 41.8–40.2 | 21% | 61% |
| Los Angeles Lakers | 44.3–37.7 | 33% | 61% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NBA team's projection →
How Miami Heat and Los Angeles Lakers come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Miami Heat have won 2 of their last 5 (W-W-L-L-L, most recent first).
Los Angeles Lakers have won 3 of their last 5 (W-L-W-L-W, most recent first).
The teams have met 37 times since 2010: Miami Heat 20, Los Angeles Lakers 17. The last meeting, on Mar 19, 2026, finished Los Angeles Lakers 134, Miami Heat 126.
Miami Heat are 588-273 as favourite and 208-299 as underdog, and 364-354 on the road (51% of 718 games, 2010–2026).
Los Angeles Lakers are 429-220 as favourite and 212-440 as underdog, and 389-298 at home (57% of 687 games, 2010–2026).
| Record | MIA | LAL |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 588-273 | 429-220 |
| As underdog | 208-299 | 212-440 |
| At home | 470-245 | 389-298 |
| On the road | 364-354 | 284-396 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the point spread. How the NBA odds have moved →