NBA
Atlanta Hawks
4-4
Washington Wizards
4-3
Win Probability
Atlanta Hawks travel to Washington to face the Wizards in a matchup the simulation favours slightly toward the visitors. The projection hinges on perimeter scoring: both teams figure to push pace, and how efficiently each converts three-point looks will separate them. AccuScore's model has returned 1.4% on win-probability calls shaped like this one across 8,382 Eastern Conference games, winning 41% of them. In similar spots across eight other matchups, the favoured side won four times. Washington would need to clamp Atlanta's transition game and force half-court sets to shift the calculus.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
| Book | Line | WAS | EV | ATL | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair ↗ | +1.5 | -111 | -6.0% | -111 | +1.0% |
| Betano ↗ | +1.5 | -105 | -4.8% | -118 | -0.4% |
| bet365 ↗ | +2 | -125 | -7.0% | -111 | -0.1% |
| Novig ↗ | +1.5 | -104 | -4.6% | -106 | +2.2% |
| ProphetX ↗ | +1.5 | +101 | -3.5% | -111 | +1.0% |
| Book | WAS | EV | ATL | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi ↗ | +105 | -4.6% | -126 | -0.0% |
| Polymarket ↗ | +111 | -3.3% | -128 | -0.4% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair ↗ | 232.5 | -111 | -1.1% | -111 | -3.9% |
| Betano ↗ | 233.5 | -110 | -3.1% | -111 | -1.6% |
| bet365 ↗ | 233.5 | -135 | -7.3% | +100 | +0.9% |
| William Hill ↗ | 233.5 | -118 | -4.6% | -118 | -3.0% |
| Novig ↗ | 246.5 | -8991 | -38.1% | -8991 | -11.4% |
Share of bets (grey) and of money (green) on each side, per source. Sportsbook figures count tickets; Polymarket counts traders and Kalshi counts trades. Sources are shown separately, never averaged.
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AccuScore's simulation makes Atlanta Hawks 56% to beat Washington Wizards (44%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Atlanta Hawks the more likely winner at 56%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Washington Wizards a 44% chance of beating Atlanta Hawks, against 56% for Atlanta Hawks. Washington Wizards are at home but the underdog on these numbers.
Atlanta Hawks (4-4 so far) project to finish 45.7–36.3 and make the playoffs in 75% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Washington Wizards (4-3 so far) project to finish 32.0–50.0 and make the playoffs in 27% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Division title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Atlanta Hawks | 45.7–36.3 | 41% | 75% |
| Washington Wizards | 32.0–50.0 | 7% | 27% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NBA team's projection →
How Atlanta Hawks and Washington Wizards come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Atlanta Hawks have won 2 of their last 5 (W-L-W-L-L, most recent first).
Washington Wizards have won 3 of their last 5 (W-W-L-L-W, most recent first).
The teams have met 73 times since 2010: Atlanta Hawks 44, Washington Wizards 29. The last meeting, on Feb 26, 2026, finished Washington Wizards 96, Atlanta Hawks 126.
Atlanta Hawks are 403-214 as favourite and 246-446 as underdog, and 288-404 on the road (42% of 692 games, 2010–2026).
Washington Wizards are 259-165 as favourite and 240-598 as underdog, and 318-345 at home (48% of 663 games, 2010–2026).
| Record | ATL | WAS |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 403-214 | 259-165 |
| As underdog | 246-446 | 240-598 |
| At home | 395-288 | 318-345 |
| On the road | 288-404 | 212-452 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the point spread. How the NBA odds have moved →