NBA
Milwaukee Bucks
1-6
Boston Celtics
5-2
Win Probability
The simulation decisively favours the Boston Celtics hosting the Milwaukee Bucks. Jayson Tatum has a 49% chance of exceeding 39 combined points, rebounds and assists, while Derrick White projects a 48% chance of surpassing 22. For Milwaukee, Kel'el Ware sits at 48% to beat 20 in the same category. The game turns on whether Boston's depth can sustain a lead against Milwaukee's balanced scoring attack. AccuScore's model has gone 8-for-8 on similar matchups across other past games. The Bucks would need to significantly outpace their projected offensive output to pull off the upset.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
| Book | Line | BOS | EV | MIL | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Novig ↗ | -11.5 | -102 | +8.3% | -120 | -12.3% |
| ProphetX ↗ | -11.5 | -105 | +7.5% | -128 | -13.4% |
| Book | BOS | EV | MIL | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi ↗ | -564 | +1.7% | +426 | -17.9% |
| Polymarket ↗ | -513 | +2.5% | +434 | -17.4% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Novig ↗ | 223.5 | -120 | +0.1% | -117 | -8.0% |
| ProphetX ↗ | 223.5 | -137 | -2.7% | -149 | -12.1% |
Share of bets (grey) and of money (green) on each side, per source. Sportsbook figures count tickets; Polymarket counts traders and Kalshi counts trades. Sources are shown separately, never averaged.
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AccuScore's simulation makes Boston Celtics 88% to beat Milwaukee Bucks (12%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Boston Celtics the more likely winner at 88%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Boston Celtics a 88% chance of beating Milwaukee Bucks, against 12% for Milwaukee Bucks. Boston Celtics are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Milwaukee Bucks (1-6 so far) project to finish 23.1–58.9 and make the playoffs in 9% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Boston Celtics (5-2 so far) project to finish 55.7–26.3 and make the playoffs in 93% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Division title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Milwaukee Bucks | 23.1–58.9 | 1% | 9% |
| Boston Celtics | 55.7–26.3 | 51% | 93% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NBA team's projection →
How Milwaukee Bucks and Boston Celtics come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Milwaukee Bucks have won 1 of their last 5 (L-L-L-W-L, most recent first).
Boston Celtics have won 4 of their last 5 (L-W-W-W-W, most recent first).
The teams have met 70 times since 2010: Milwaukee Bucks 31, Boston Celtics 39. The last meeting, on Apr 3, 2026, finished Boston Celtics 133, Milwaukee Bucks 101.
Milwaukee Bucks are 511-251 as favourite and 173-374 as underdog, and 306-379 on the road (45% of 685 games, 2010–2026).
Boston Celtics are 667-291 as favourite and 165-263 as underdog, and 496-234 at home (68% of 730 games, 2010–2026).
| Record | MIL | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 511-251 | 667-291 |
| As underdog | 173-374 | 165-263 |
| At home | 419-267 | 496-234 |
| On the road | 306-379 | 383-337 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the point spread. How the NBA odds have moved →