Indiana Pacers
2-6
Memphis Grizzlies
6-1
Win Probability
The Indiana Pacers visit Memphis Grizzlies in a matchup that heavily favors the home side. Pascal Siakam projects to exceed 38 combined points, rebounds and assists in 48% of simulations, while Cameron Boozer clears 26 in half of them—a gap that mirrors Memphis's overall depth advantage. The game turns on whether Indiana can sustain offensive execution on the road; the simulation gives them a 33% win probability. AccuScore's model has won 55% of games shaped like this one across its track record. For the Pacers to pull the upset, Andrew Nembhard would need to approach his 31-point threshold while the Grizzlies' role players underperform their projections.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
| Book | Line | MEM | EV | IND | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Novig ↗ | -30.5 | -100000 | -48.2% | -12400 | -1.4% |
| ProphetX ↗ | -5.5 | -124 | -0.3% | +113 | -2.1% |
| Book | MEM | EV | IND | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi ↗ | -263 | -2.4% | +217 | -0.9% |
| Polymarket ↗ | -245 | -1.4% | +212 | -1.6% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Novig ↗ | 233.5 | -9900 | -27.0% | -9900 | -22.5% |
| ProphetX ↗ | 230.5 | -102 | +1.8% | -106 | -3.7% |
Share of bets (grey) and of money (green) on each side, per source. Sportsbook figures count tickets; Polymarket counts traders and Kalshi counts trades. Sources are shown separately, never averaged.
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NBA
AccuScore's simulation makes Memphis Grizzlies 69% to beat Indiana Pacers (31%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Memphis Grizzlies the more likely winner at 69%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Memphis Grizzlies a 69% chance of beating Indiana Pacers, against 31% for Indiana Pacers. Memphis Grizzlies are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Indiana Pacers (2-6 so far) project to finish 30.4–51.6 and make the playoffs in 24% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Memphis Grizzlies (6-1 so far) project to finish 40.4–41.6 and make the playoffs in 45% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Division title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Indiana Pacers | 30.4–51.6 | 3% | 24% |
| Memphis Grizzlies | 40.4–41.6 | 7% | 45% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NBA team's projection →
How Indiana Pacers and Memphis Grizzlies come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Indiana Pacers have won 0 of their last 5 (L-L-L-L-L, most recent first).
Memphis Grizzlies have won 4 of their last 5 (L-W-W-W-W, most recent first).
The teams have met 31 times since 2010: Indiana Pacers 13, Memphis Grizzlies 18. The last meeting, on Mar 1, 2026, finished Memphis Grizzlies 125, Indiana Pacers 106.
Indiana Pacers are 451-226 as favourite and 227-416 as underdog, and 295-399 on the road (43% of 694 games, 2010–2026).
Memphis Grizzlies are 440-194 as favourite and 229-435 as underdog, and 408-273 at home (60% of 681 games, 2010–2026).
| Record | IND | MEM |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 451-226 | 440-194 |
| As underdog | 227-416 | 229-435 |
| At home | 411-280 | 408-273 |
| On the road | 295-399 | 297-382 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the point spread. How the NBA odds have moved →