NBA
Minnesota Timberwolves
5-3
Houston Rockets
7-1
Win Probability
The Houston Rockets host the Minnesota Timberwolves in a matchup where the simulation decisively favors the home side. Alperen Sengun projects a 50% chance of surpassing 40 combined points, rebounds and assists, while LaMelo Ball has a 47% chance at exceeding 28—a gap that captures how the model sees this game playing out. The outcome hinges on whether Minnesota can generate enough offensive creation; Ayo Dosunmu sits at 47% to top 27 combined, suggesting the Timberwolves will need secondary scorers to keep pace. AccuScore's record on games shaped this way stands at 69% over 1273 prior instances. For Minnesota to pull the upset, multiple contributors would need to hit their projection floors simultaneously while Houston's depth—Fred VanVleet at 49% for 19-plus combined—underperforms.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
| Book | Line | HOU | EV | MIN | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Novig ↗ | -9.5 | -111 | -5.5% | -115 | -0.3% |
| ProphetX ↗ | -9.5 | -118 | -6.8% | -135 | -3.7% |
| Book | HOU | EV | MIN | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi ↗ | -322 | -2.6% | +252 | -1.2% |
| Polymarket ↗ | -300 | -1.8% | +257 | -0.6% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Novig ↗ | 218.5 | -8991 | -18.1% | -8991 | -31.3% |
Share of bets (grey) and of money (green) on each side, per source. Sportsbook figures count tickets; Polymarket counts traders and Kalshi counts trades. Sources are shown separately, never averaged.
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AccuScore's simulation makes Houston Rockets 72% to beat Minnesota Timberwolves (28%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Houston Rockets the more likely winner at 72%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Houston Rockets a 72% chance of beating Minnesota Timberwolves, against 28% for Minnesota Timberwolves. Houston Rockets are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Minnesota Timberwolves (4-3 so far) project to finish 49.3–32.7 and make the playoffs in 76% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Houston Rockets (6-1 so far) project to finish 54.6–27.4 and make the playoffs in 87% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Division title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota Timberwolves | 49.3–32.7 | 27% | 76% |
| Houston Rockets | 54.6–27.4 | 43% | 87% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NBA team's projection →
How Minnesota Timberwolves and Houston Rockets come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Minnesota Timberwolves have won 2 of their last 5 (W-L-W-L-L, most recent first).
Houston Rockets have won 4 of their last 5 (W-W-L-W-W, most recent first).
The teams have met 62 times since 2010: Minnesota Timberwolves 25, Houston Rockets 37. The last meeting, on Apr 10, 2026, finished Minnesota Timberwolves 136, Houston Rockets 132.
Minnesota Timberwolves are 347-206 as favourite and 208-507 as underdog, and 254-414 on the road (38% of 668 games, 2010–2026).
Houston Rockets are 546-250 as favourite and 179-334 as underdog, and 435-255 at home (63% of 690 games, 2010–2026).
| Record | MIN | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 347-206 | 546-250 |
| As underdog | 208-507 | 179-334 |
| At home | 335-331 | 435-255 |
| On the road | 254-414 | 309-376 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the point spread. How the NBA odds have moved →