NBA
Portland Trail Blazers
5-1
Phoenix Suns
1-4
Win Probability
The Portland Trail Blazers travel to Phoenix to face the Suns in a matchup where the simulation leans slightly toward the visitors. Damian Lillard has a 49% chance of exceeding 26 points, rebounds and assists, while Devin Booker sits at 47% for the same threshold—a marginal separation that reflects how tightly the model sees this contest. The game hinges on depth: Portland's balanced scoring has five players projected with at least a 45% chance to clear their respective marks, while Phoenix leans harder on Booker and Miles Bridges at 47% each. AccuScore's record on games shaped like this one stands at 44% over thousands of attempts. For the Suns to emerge, they would need one of their secondary options to outrun projection—Jalen Green at 49% offers the likeliest path.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
| Book | PHO | EV | POR | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi ↗ | +140 | -1.4% | -167 | -2.4% |
| Polymarket ↗ | +131 | -3.2% | -158 | -1.4% |
Share of bets (grey) and of money (green) on each side, per source. Sportsbook figures count tickets; Polymarket counts traders and Kalshi counts trades. Sources are shown separately, never averaged.
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AccuScore's simulation makes Portland Trail Blazers 60% to beat Phoenix Suns (41%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Portland Trail Blazers the more likely winner at 60%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Phoenix Suns a 41% chance of beating Portland Trail Blazers, against 60% for Portland Trail Blazers. Phoenix Suns are at home but the underdog on these numbers.
Portland Trail Blazers (5-1 so far) project to finish 50.2–31.8 and make the playoffs in 77% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Phoenix Suns (1-4 so far) project to finish 35.6–46.4 and make the playoffs in 31% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Division title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Portland Trail Blazers | 50.2–31.8 | 29% | 77% |
| Phoenix Suns | 35.6–46.4 | 11% | 31% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NBA team's projection →
How Portland Trail Blazers and Phoenix Suns come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Portland Trail Blazers have won 4 of their last 5 (W-W-L-W-W, most recent first).
Phoenix Suns have won 1 of their last 5 (L-L-L-W-L, most recent first).
The teams have met 59 times since 2010: Portland Trail Blazers 31, Phoenix Suns 28. The last meeting, on Oct 21, 2026, finished Phoenix Suns 83, Portland Trail Blazers 124.
Portland Trail Blazers are 416-181 as favourite and 219-469 as underdog, and 274-411 on the road (40% of 685 games, 2010–2026).
Phoenix Suns are 370-194 as favourite and 217-483 as underdog, and 354-315 at home (53% of 669 games, 2010–2026).
| Record | POR | PHO |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 416-181 | 370-194 |
| As underdog | 219-469 | 217-483 |
| At home | 398-275 | 354-315 |
| On the road | 274-411 | 268-394 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the point spread. How the NBA odds have moved →