Bayern Munchen
Hamburger SV
Win Probability
Moneyline
FCB
-625
85.8% win prob
EV -0.2%
Betano
Draw
Draw
+960
10% prob
EV +4.6%
Pinnacle
Moneyline
HAM
+1400
3.9% win prob
EV -20.8%
bet365
Bayern Munchen travel to face Hamburger SV in a fixture where the simulation decisively favours the visitors. Across 1,968 graded games where AccuScore leaned this strongly to one side, that side won 75% of the time. The projection turns on Bayern's attacking threat; the model expects the visitors to score 3.2 goals, with Hamburger SV managing only 0.6. For the hosts to pull off an upset, they would need to suffocate Bayern's attack while converting chances of their own—a steep climb against a side the model rates so heavily.
| Book | FCB | EV | Draw | EV | HAM | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle ↗ | -833 | -1.9% | +960 | +4.6% | +1343 | -21.9% |
| Betano ↗ | -625 | -0.2% | +750 | -6.2% | +1300 | -22.7% |
| bet365 ↗ | -833 | -1.9% | +700 | -8.8% | +1400 | -20.8% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle ↗ | 4.5 | +111 | -14.2% | -137 | +7.1% |
| Betano ↗ | 4.5 | +110 | -14.4% | -128 | +8.8% |
| bet365 ↗ | 4.5 | +110 | -14.4% | -137 | +7.1% |
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Bundesliga
AccuScore's simulation makes Bayern Munchen 86% to win, Hamburger SV 4%, with a 10% chance of a draw.
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Bayern Munchen the more likely winner at 86%, with a 10% chance of a draw. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Hamburger SV a 4% chance of beating Bayern Munchen, with 86% for Bayern Munchen and 10% for a draw. Hamburger SV are at home but the underdog on these numbers.
How Bayern Munchen and Hamburger SV come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Bayern Munchen have won 3 of their last 5, drawing 2 (W-D-W-W-D, most recent first).
Hamburger SV have won 3 of their last 5 (W-L-L-W-W, most recent first).
The teams have met 4 times since 2017: Bayern Munchen 3, Hamburger SV 0, 1 drawn. The last meeting, on Jan 31, 2026, finished Bayern Munchen 2, Hamburger SV 2.