Coventry City
Leeds United
Win Probability
Moneyline
COV
+450
19.8% win prob
EV +4.4%
Betano
Draw
Draw
+315
27% prob
EV +5.0%
Betano
Moneyline
LEE
-164
53.7% win prob
EV -6.8%
Pinnacle
Leeds United hosts Coventry City in a fixture where the simulation clearly favors the home side. Across 10,698 games shaped this way, Leeds' favored side won 52% of the time. The matchup hinges on Coventry's ability to score on the road; the projected combined output suggests both teams will struggle for goals, with AccuScore's model backing the under in similar spots at a 49% historical clip. For Coventry City to pull off an upset, they would need to breach Leeds' defense early and establish sustained pressure, something their travel disadvantage and the model's lean against them makes unlikely.
| Book | COV | EV | Draw | EV | LEE | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle ↗ | +431 | +2.6% | +309 | +4.2% | -164 | -6.8% |
| Betano ↗ | +450 | +4.4% | +315 | +5.0% | -167 | -7.1% |
| bet365 ↗ | +425 | +2.0% | +300 | +3.0% | -189 | -8.9% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle ↗ | 2.5 | -123 | -6.8% | +103 | +3.1% |
| Betano ↗ | 2.5 | -128 | -7.6% | +110 | +5.0% |
| bet365 ↗ | 2.5 | -125 | -7.1% | +100 | +2.3% |
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EPL
AccuScore's simulation makes Leeds United 54% to win, Coventry City 20%, with a 27% chance of a draw.
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Leeds United the more likely winner at 54%, with a 27% chance of a draw. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Leeds United a 54% chance of beating Coventry City, with 20% for Coventry City and 27% for a draw. Leeds United are at home and favoured on these numbers.
How Coventry City and Leeds United come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Coventry City have won 2 of their last 5 (L-W-L-L-W, most recent first).
Leeds United have won 1 of their last 5, drawing 2 (W-L-D-D-L, most recent first).
The teams have met 2 times since 2023: Coventry City 1, Leeds United 0, 1 drawn. The last meeting, on Apr 6, 2024, finished Leeds United 1, Coventry City 2.