Newcastle United
Brighton & Hove Albion
Win Probability
Moneyline
NEW
+433
21.8% win prob
EV +8.1%
Pinnacle
Draw
Draw
+345
28% prob
EV +11.6%
Pinnacle
Moneyline
BHA
-161
50.5% win prob
EV -9.1%
bet365
Brighton & Hove Albion hosts Newcastle United in a fixture where the simulation clearly favours the home side. The Seagulls are projected to control play, with Newcastle facing an uphill task to break down a Brighton attack that figures to create danger throughout. Newcastle's defence will be tested early and often; how well it responds to that pressure determines whether the visitors can keep this close. In games where AccuScore's model has leaned this strongly toward the home team, that side won 52% of the time across past matchups. For Newcastle to pull off an upset, it would need to weather Brighton's threat and convert its own chances with clinical efficiency.
| Book | NEW | EV | Draw | EV | BHA | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle ↗ | +433 | +8.1% | +345 | +11.6% | -179 | -10.6% |
| bet365 ↗ | +375 | +1.8% | +300 | +5.4% | -161 | -9.1% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle ↗ | 3 | -118 | -15.6% | -101 | +13.4% |
| bet365 ↗ | 2.5 | -175 | -13.0% | +138 | +12.9% |
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EPL
AccuScore's simulation makes Brighton & Hove Albion 51% to win, Newcastle United 22%, with a 28% chance of a draw.
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Brighton & Hove Albion the more likely winner at 51%, with a 28% chance of a draw. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Brighton & Hove Albion a 51% chance of beating Newcastle United, with 22% for Newcastle United and 28% for a draw. Brighton & Hove Albion are at home and favoured on these numbers.
How Newcastle United and Brighton & Hove Albion come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Newcastle United have won 1 of their last 5, drawing 1 (D-L-W-L-L, most recent first).
Brighton & Hove Albion have won 4 of their last 5 (W-W-L-W-W, most recent first).
The teams have met 17 times since 2017: Newcastle United 3, Brighton & Hove Albion 7, 7 drawn. The last meeting, on May 2, 2026, finished Brighton & Hove Albion 1, Newcastle United 3.